The Macro View – A strange decoupling evolving
These days, we are witnessing a discrepancy between the level of activity in the broad US economy and the housing related sectors. As our proprietary Index of Weekly Economic Indicators shows, we are currently at the strongest level of economic activity in since the stock bubble years. But the housing sector deteriorates by the day and since the housing market activity has been one of the strongest drivers behind construction and mortgage components in real GDP growth, we expect GDP to weaken from here.
This is apparently not the view taken by the bond market. 10-Year Treasury Notes have been declining in the last two weeks, taking the 10-year yield to 4.64% (the highest since February. The bond traders have been inspired by the Bernanke’s comments on Wednesday where he emphasized that the Fed had kept an inflation bias even after having changed the FOMC statement wording at the last rate decision meeting. Bernanke is opting to create a data-will-tell-you-as-we-go approach to monetary policy – very unlike that of Greenspan who would usually indicate the general direction of the Fed managed part of the yield curve.
We think that Treasuries will be rangebound in the next quarter or so. The market is waiting for either the deteriorating housing sector or the strong overall economy to win the battle over inflation/disinflation. We have a modestly bullish stance on Treasuries at this level, since the historical experiences dictate that the negative (disinflationary) effects from the faltering housing market will be stronger than the overall economy.
This picture is the same, but the stakes are higher in Japan. JGB’s have been rangebound since September last year and the last streak of inflation figures was again lower than expected. Yet, JGB’s are now trading at the lower end of the range (near 134) and 6-month rates have fallen back from their 10-year highs from the end of February. We have still not seen a convincing streak of figures from Japan and despite the turnaround in land and property prices, the Bank of Japan is not likely to hike rates any time soon with CPI figures still running below 0% YoY.
Saturday, March 31, 2007
GLOBAL NEWS ON THE MARKETS ARE AT GLANCE......
European stocks fell before a U.S. government report that may show personal spending in the world's biggest economy slowed last month.
Vodafone Group Plc, the largest mobile-phone company, led telecom shares lower after saying competitive and regulatory pressure will continue in Europe . Commodity stocks advanced, paced by BP Plc and Rio Tinto Group as oil and metal prices rose.
The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index dropped 0.3 percent to 373.23 as of 9:09 a.m. in London . The benchmark is headed for a quarterly gain of 2.5 percent, the worst performance for the first three months of a year since 2003. The Stoxx 50 fell 0.4 percent today. The Euro Stoxx 50 lost 0.4 percent.
The Commerce Department will report that spending in the U.S. increased 0.3 percent following a 0.5 percent gain a month earlier, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of 74 economists.
A separate release from the University of Michigan is forecast to show confidence among consumers fell this month to the lowest level since September. The U.S. is Europe 's biggest trading partner.
National benchmarks fell in 12 of 18 markets in Western Europe . France 's CAC 40 slid 0.3 percent. Germany 's DAX was little changed. The U.K. 's FTSE 100 retreated 0.2 percent.
Shares of Vodafone slipped 3.5 percent to 136.7 pence after it said competitive and regulatory pressure will continue in Europe in fiscal 2008.
Telekom Austria AG dropped 1.6 percent to 18.93 euros. Telefonica SA, Spain 's biggest phone company, retreated 0.8percent to 16.37 euros.
Earnings growth of Stoxx 600 companies will slow to 6.2 percent on average this year, according to estimates compiled by FactSet Research Systems, compared with 14.6 percent for 2006.
Oil rose, heading for a second week of gains, after Iran refused to free 15 British sailors and marines, adding to concern strained relations with the U.K. and
BP, the world's third-largest refiner, added 0.3 percent to 559.5 pence. Royal Dutch Shell Plc, the region's biggest oil company by market value, gained 0.3 percent to 1,715 pence.
Copper futures in Shanghai rose, heading for a sixth straight weekly gain.
Rio Tinto, the world's third-largest mining company, climbed 0.8 percent to 2,888 pence. BHP Billiton Ltd., the No. 1, rose 0.4 percent to 1,138 pence.
Alliance Boots Plc added 0.7 percent to 1,034 pence after Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. and billionaire Stefano Pessina increased their bid for the largest U.K. drugstore chain by 4 percent to 1,040 pence a share.
Kingfisher Plc, Europe 's largest home-improvement retailer, jumped 3.2 percent to 279.25 pence. Goldman Sachs Group Inc.'s private equity unit may consider making an offer for Kingfisher, the London-based Times said, citing unidentified industry sources. Goldman Sachs and Kingfisher Chief Executive Officer Gerry Murphy declined to comment, the Times said.
THEMES TO WATCH – UPCOMING SESSION
The price of oil is a major factor going into the weekend. Tensions over Iran remain a concern and who would want to be overly exposed in the short term? Broader indices are still trapped in tight ranges (see below) and the setup is ideal for buying volatility as today is the end of the week, month and quarter. Cyclicals are being slammed this week on the prospects of higher input prices and the Fed's ongoing inflation bias. Dow Transports posted a doji yesterday and as such, that could be the end of the decline. But, it's range at best and Financials continue to look vulnerable to further downside.
Technically, indices are showing strength within tight ranges but volumes are below-average. We look for acceleration upon a break of the following levels:
Euro Stoxx 50: 4108-4196
DAX: 6752-6903
FTSE 100: 6250-6355
S&P 500: 1410-1439
Nasdaq 100: 1753-1807
Nikkei 225: 17036-17558
Adding to volatility today will be data releases: most important is MoM PCE Core at 12.30 GMT. Market consensus is 0.2%.
Have a nice weekend everybody.
Company News:
Cognos Inc.: Fell $1.92, or 4.8 percent, to $38.03 in trading after the official close of U.S. exchanges yesterday. The world's second-biggest maker of business-analysis software forecast profit excluding some costs of 28 cents to 32 cents a share in the current quarter.
Dell Inc.: Dropped 61 cents, or 2.6 percent, to $22.78 in extended trading yesterday. The world's second-biggest personal-computer maker said it found evidence of misconduct and delayed filing its annual report as it concludes an investigation into its accounting.
Dendreon Corp.: The company's prostate cancer drug Provenge was recommended for U.S. approval as the first treatment to stimulate the body's immune system against tumor cells. Advisers to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration voted 17-0 today that the medicine is safe and 13-4 that it is “substantially effective” based on clinical trials so far. The stock rose 60 cents, or 13 percent, to $5.22 in regular trading on March 28 before being suspended yesterday.
PMC-Sierra Inc.: Rose 22 cents, or 3.5 percent, to $6.52 in extended trading. The maker of chips for telecommunications equipment said it will close two research and development centers in Manitoba and Saskatchewan , Canada , cutting about 175 jobs, or 15 percent of its workforce. The cuts will reduce operating expenses by as much as $24 million annually, PMC-Sierra said.
Red Hat Inc.: Rose $1.04, or 4.5 percent, to $24.18 in extended trading. The biggest distributor of Linux software said it expects to earn as much as 72 cents a share, excluding some items, in fiscal 2008.
Solectron Corp.: Rose 6 cents, or 1.9 percent, to $3.14 in extended trading. The world's second-largest maker of electronics for other companies said it plans to cut as many as 1,500 jobs.
Tibco Software Inc.: Fell 32 cents, or 3.6 percent, to $8.61 in extended trading. The maker of business software posted first-quarter revenue of $125.7 million, according to a statement on PR Newswire.
Vodafone Group Plc, the largest mobile-phone company, led telecom shares lower after saying competitive and regulatory pressure will continue in Europe . Commodity stocks advanced, paced by BP Plc and Rio Tinto Group as oil and metal prices rose.
The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index dropped 0.3 percent to 373.23 as of 9:09 a.m. in London . The benchmark is headed for a quarterly gain of 2.5 percent, the worst performance for the first three months of a year since 2003. The Stoxx 50 fell 0.4 percent today. The Euro Stoxx 50 lost 0.4 percent.
The Commerce Department will report that spending in the U.S. increased 0.3 percent following a 0.5 percent gain a month earlier, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of 74 economists.
A separate release from the University of Michigan is forecast to show confidence among consumers fell this month to the lowest level since September. The U.S. is Europe 's biggest trading partner.
National benchmarks fell in 12 of 18 markets in Western Europe . France 's CAC 40 slid 0.3 percent. Germany 's DAX was little changed. The U.K. 's FTSE 100 retreated 0.2 percent.
Shares of Vodafone slipped 3.5 percent to 136.7 pence after it said competitive and regulatory pressure will continue in Europe in fiscal 2008.
Telekom Austria AG dropped 1.6 percent to 18.93 euros. Telefonica SA, Spain 's biggest phone company, retreated 0.8percent to 16.37 euros.
Earnings growth of Stoxx 600 companies will slow to 6.2 percent on average this year, according to estimates compiled by FactSet Research Systems, compared with 14.6 percent for 2006.
Oil rose, heading for a second week of gains, after Iran refused to free 15 British sailors and marines, adding to concern strained relations with the U.K. and
BP, the world's third-largest refiner, added 0.3 percent to 559.5 pence. Royal Dutch Shell Plc, the region's biggest oil company by market value, gained 0.3 percent to 1,715 pence.
Copper futures in Shanghai rose, heading for a sixth straight weekly gain.
Rio Tinto, the world's third-largest mining company, climbed 0.8 percent to 2,888 pence. BHP Billiton Ltd., the No. 1, rose 0.4 percent to 1,138 pence.
Alliance Boots Plc added 0.7 percent to 1,034 pence after Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. and billionaire Stefano Pessina increased their bid for the largest U.K. drugstore chain by 4 percent to 1,040 pence a share.
Kingfisher Plc, Europe 's largest home-improvement retailer, jumped 3.2 percent to 279.25 pence. Goldman Sachs Group Inc.'s private equity unit may consider making an offer for Kingfisher, the London-based Times said, citing unidentified industry sources. Goldman Sachs and Kingfisher Chief Executive Officer Gerry Murphy declined to comment, the Times said.
THEMES TO WATCH – UPCOMING SESSION
The price of oil is a major factor going into the weekend. Tensions over Iran remain a concern and who would want to be overly exposed in the short term? Broader indices are still trapped in tight ranges (see below) and the setup is ideal for buying volatility as today is the end of the week, month and quarter. Cyclicals are being slammed this week on the prospects of higher input prices and the Fed's ongoing inflation bias. Dow Transports posted a doji yesterday and as such, that could be the end of the decline. But, it's range at best and Financials continue to look vulnerable to further downside.
Technically, indices are showing strength within tight ranges but volumes are below-average. We look for acceleration upon a break of the following levels:
Euro Stoxx 50: 4108-4196
DAX: 6752-6903
FTSE 100: 6250-6355
S&P 500: 1410-1439
Nasdaq 100: 1753-1807
Nikkei 225: 17036-17558
Adding to volatility today will be data releases: most important is MoM PCE Core at 12.30 GMT. Market consensus is 0.2%.
Have a nice weekend everybody.
Company News:
Cognos Inc.: Fell $1.92, or 4.8 percent, to $38.03 in trading after the official close of U.S. exchanges yesterday. The world's second-biggest maker of business-analysis software forecast profit excluding some costs of 28 cents to 32 cents a share in the current quarter.
Dell Inc.: Dropped 61 cents, or 2.6 percent, to $22.78 in extended trading yesterday. The world's second-biggest personal-computer maker said it found evidence of misconduct and delayed filing its annual report as it concludes an investigation into its accounting.
Dendreon Corp.: The company's prostate cancer drug Provenge was recommended for U.S. approval as the first treatment to stimulate the body's immune system against tumor cells. Advisers to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration voted 17-0 today that the medicine is safe and 13-4 that it is “substantially effective” based on clinical trials so far. The stock rose 60 cents, or 13 percent, to $5.22 in regular trading on March 28 before being suspended yesterday.
PMC-Sierra Inc.: Rose 22 cents, or 3.5 percent, to $6.52 in extended trading. The maker of chips for telecommunications equipment said it will close two research and development centers in Manitoba and Saskatchewan , Canada , cutting about 175 jobs, or 15 percent of its workforce. The cuts will reduce operating expenses by as much as $24 million annually, PMC-Sierra said.
Red Hat Inc.: Rose $1.04, or 4.5 percent, to $24.18 in extended trading. The biggest distributor of Linux software said it expects to earn as much as 72 cents a share, excluding some items, in fiscal 2008.
Solectron Corp.: Rose 6 cents, or 1.9 percent, to $3.14 in extended trading. The world's second-largest maker of electronics for other companies said it plans to cut as many as 1,500 jobs.
Tibco Software Inc.: Fell 32 cents, or 3.6 percent, to $8.61 in extended trading. The maker of business software posted first-quarter revenue of $125.7 million, according to a statement on PR Newswire.
today's performances
TATA MOTOR ACHIEVES OUR FIRST TARGET, HCC FAILS BUT NT TRIGGERD OUR SL,BAJAJ AUTO ACHIEVES FIRST TARGET.
CALLS FOR SHORT TERM AS WELL AS INTRADAY ..
BPL-UPPER CIRCUIT,
BSELINFRA-4.5%UP,
RDB-3.5%UP
AND REST 3 WERE JUST ABOVE 0.5-2RS .
YAHOO CALLS- TATA STEEL PUT @11..EXIT PRICE @17
NIFTY CALL OF 3800 GIVEN AT 106 TOUCHES 119.
OUR DAY BEFORE TTK PRESTIGE IS UP BY 24%IN JUST 2 DAYS
TECHNICAL CALL SOBHA IS UP BY 25RS
................ONE MORE REQUEST TO YOU ALL IF YOU FOLLOW MY CALLS THEN FOLLOW ALL CALLS I AM NOT GOD OF THIS MARKET THAT IF I GAVE 3 THEN ALL 3 WILL RUN SO PLZ FOLLOW ALL CALLS EVEN IN SMALL QTY AS PER AS YOUR CAPACITY.AS SO MANY ASKING THAT I AM GIVING U SO MANY CALLS BUT SEE THE VARIETY OF CALLS AS I HAVE VARIETY OF CLIENTS WITH ME SOMEONE LIKE INFOSYS SOMEONE LIKES MAN INDUSTRIES SO I HAVE TAKE CARE OF ALL OF THEM SO PLZ DONT MIND WITH MY BEST EFFORT I AM POSTING THESE ALL CALLS.
CALLS FOR SHORT TERM AS WELL AS INTRADAY ..
BPL-UPPER CIRCUIT,
BSELINFRA-4.5%UP,
RDB-3.5%UP
AND REST 3 WERE JUST ABOVE 0.5-2RS .
YAHOO CALLS- TATA STEEL PUT @11..EXIT PRICE @17
NIFTY CALL OF 3800 GIVEN AT 106 TOUCHES 119.
OUR DAY BEFORE TTK PRESTIGE IS UP BY 24%IN JUST 2 DAYS
TECHNICAL CALL SOBHA IS UP BY 25RS
................ONE MORE REQUEST TO YOU ALL IF YOU FOLLOW MY CALLS THEN FOLLOW ALL CALLS I AM NOT GOD OF THIS MARKET THAT IF I GAVE 3 THEN ALL 3 WILL RUN SO PLZ FOLLOW ALL CALLS EVEN IN SMALL QTY AS PER AS YOUR CAPACITY.AS SO MANY ASKING THAT I AM GIVING U SO MANY CALLS BUT SEE THE VARIETY OF CALLS AS I HAVE VARIETY OF CLIENTS WITH ME SOMEONE LIKE INFOSYS SOMEONE LIKES MAN INDUSTRIES SO I HAVE TAKE CARE OF ALL OF THEM SO PLZ DONT MIND WITH MY BEST EFFORT I AM POSTING THESE ALL CALLS.
Friday, March 30, 2007
March 30--ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS OF NIFTY
WAVE THREE UNFOLDING!
In spite of the bullishness which unfolded, Nifty appears all set to start its downward trend anytime. Thursday's rally appears to be wave 'c' of '2' of '3'. Once this corrective pattern is complete, Nifty should start heading lower.
The break below 3810 in an impulsive pattern lays a clear ground for a larger downside at the moment. Even if the pattern is only corrective further downside has to be the logical progression from here.
Irrespective of the sharp rally, expect a weaker Nifty heading once gain to 3710-3670 levels once more on Friday May 30, 2007. Nifty now appears to be all set to record levels of 3200 in the near future sooner than later.
In spite of the bullishness which unfolded, Nifty appears all set to start its downward trend anytime. Thursday's rally appears to be wave 'c' of '2' of '3'. Once this corrective pattern is complete, Nifty should start heading lower.
The break below 3810 in an impulsive pattern lays a clear ground for a larger downside at the moment. Even if the pattern is only corrective further downside has to be the logical progression from here.
Irrespective of the sharp rally, expect a weaker Nifty heading once gain to 3710-3670 levels once more on Friday May 30, 2007. Nifty now appears to be all set to record levels of 3200 in the near future sooner than later.
Dow gains on surprise growth report
Stocks slumped Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke said the U.S. economic outlook has become more uncertain in recent weeks, reviving recession worries.
But such fears were tempered by the final read on fourth-quarter gross domestic product growth Thursday morning. GDP, the broadest measure of the nation's economy, grew at a 2.5 percent annual rate in the quarter, up from the previous estimate of 2.2 percent and a reading of 2 percent in the third quarter.
Another supportive report showed a surprise drop in the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment last week.
The two strong economic reports initially gave a boost to stocks, with all but 1 of the Dow's 30 components rising. But the advance lost some steam as the morning wore on.
Blue chip gainers included Dow stocks Merck (up $0.50 to $43.73, Charts), Alcoa (up $0.27 to $33.85, Charts), Citigroup (up $0.36 to $51.32, Charts) and JP Morgan (up $0.41 to $48.40, Charts).
In deals news, U.S. Steel (up $3.13 to $100.74, Charts) is buying Lone Star Technologies (up $17.73 to $66.18, Charts) in a deal worth $2.1 billion in cash. Both stocks jumped on the news.
On the downside, a number of technology shares declined, including RF Micro Devices (down $0.73 to $6.34, Charts). The chipmaker warned late Wednesday that first-quarter results will miss forecasts due to weaker demand from a top customer. Shares slumped 10 percent Thursday and topped the Nasdaq's most-actives list.
Market breadth was positive. On the New York Stock Exchange, winners beat losers 2 to 1 on volume of 400 million shares. On the Nasdaq, advancers topped decliners 7 to 6 on volume of 540 million shares.
But such fears were tempered by the final read on fourth-quarter gross domestic product growth Thursday morning. GDP, the broadest measure of the nation's economy, grew at a 2.5 percent annual rate in the quarter, up from the previous estimate of 2.2 percent and a reading of 2 percent in the third quarter.
Another supportive report showed a surprise drop in the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment last week.
The two strong economic reports initially gave a boost to stocks, with all but 1 of the Dow's 30 components rising. But the advance lost some steam as the morning wore on.
Blue chip gainers included Dow stocks Merck (up $0.50 to $43.73, Charts), Alcoa (up $0.27 to $33.85, Charts), Citigroup (up $0.36 to $51.32, Charts) and JP Morgan (up $0.41 to $48.40, Charts).
In deals news, U.S. Steel (up $3.13 to $100.74, Charts) is buying Lone Star Technologies (up $17.73 to $66.18, Charts) in a deal worth $2.1 billion in cash. Both stocks jumped on the news.
On the downside, a number of technology shares declined, including RF Micro Devices (down $0.73 to $6.34, Charts). The chipmaker warned late Wednesday that first-quarter results will miss forecasts due to weaker demand from a top customer. Shares slumped 10 percent Thursday and topped the Nasdaq's most-actives list.
Market breadth was positive. On the New York Stock Exchange, winners beat losers 2 to 1 on volume of 400 million shares. On the Nasdaq, advancers topped decliners 7 to 6 on volume of 540 million shares.
INTRESTING ARTICLE -MUST READ.
Imagine there's no `FII'
In India, all of us are used to the notion of `FII' as being the channel through which foreign investors access the Indian market. But looking forward, the future easing of capital controls in India will some day involve eliminating the concept of the FII, and opening up the equity spot and derivatives markets to anyone in the world. The FII is a piece of State-induced canalisation, and it will surely (someday) go the way of canalisation to favour the State Trading Corporation or import licence holders.
It is, hence, of interest to all of us to ponder what lies beyond. What is the institutional structure through which normal market economies engage in cross-border financial flows? I believe a key piece of the plumbing is the concept of an "Omnibus Account". This week, Futures Industry magazine has an excellent article describing this structure: Omnibus Accounts: The Portal to Cross-Border Trading, by Leslie Sutphen & Jeff Huang. This article is U.S. centric, but similar structures work for all normal market economies.
The picture that I'm getting is that if India is able to obtain the "Part 30.10 exemption" from CFTC, then it will pave the way for Indian brokers to directly sell to US customers. Else, the Omnibus Account is the only way. It will involve bilateral contracts between a U.S. brokerage firm and an Indian brokerage firm. The Indian firm will treat the orders coming from the U.S. brokerage firm as one big customer, except for the purpose of a `large trader reporting system' (which isn't yet in place in India) where the names of large positions are required.
The article says: Regulatory authorities in some countries have responded by banning omnibus accounts, but this leads to at least two problems. First, it becomes less efficient for global brokers and their customers to enter those markets, and in some cases legally impossible. Second, some market participants will resort to trading "look-alike" contracts with their broker on an over-the-counter basis. The broker then offsets these contracts by establishing an identical position on the exchange. This arrangement does allow these customers to trade these markets, but it provides the regulators with even less information on the ultimate customer. In any case, many institutional investors do not like the lack of price transparency of over-the-counter contracts, so they avoid these markets. This deprives new exchanges of liquidity.
In India, these "look-alike" contracts go by the name of Participatory Notes. :-)
I found it fascinating that in the same issue of Futures Industry magazine, there was an article on developments in Taiwan which is a country which is in the midst of this FII -> Ombinus Accounts transition. Taiwan is like India in having a very big direct retail participation in the securities markets. Roughly 10% of their population trades - in an Indian setting, that would translate to 100 million direct market participants. Taiwan is trying to move towards one thing which we have already done right: a merger between the spot stock exchange and the futures exchange. Right from the L. C. Gupta report onwards, India has been clearheaded on this, requiring no silly separation between the spot and the derivative. But the other frontiers which Taiwan is moving on are a jump ahead of us. They are removing their QFII system, and shifting to omnibus accounts. They are worrying about offering a range of traded products which are interesting to global market participants - such as gold futures and a dollar denominated Taiwanese stock market index - so as to make Taiwan a trading centre for market participants from all over the world. They are increasing the size of position limits. Taiwan is one of the unhappy countries which has taxation of financial transactions - a bad idea in public finance if there ever was one. They seem to be headed to drop the tax rate from 2.5 basis points to 1 basis point. Finally, you might find this article on Mexico interesting; they already have omnibus accounts.
In India, all of us are used to the notion of `FII' as being the channel through which foreign investors access the Indian market. But looking forward, the future easing of capital controls in India will some day involve eliminating the concept of the FII, and opening up the equity spot and derivatives markets to anyone in the world. The FII is a piece of State-induced canalisation, and it will surely (someday) go the way of canalisation to favour the State Trading Corporation or import licence holders.
It is, hence, of interest to all of us to ponder what lies beyond. What is the institutional structure through which normal market economies engage in cross-border financial flows? I believe a key piece of the plumbing is the concept of an "Omnibus Account". This week, Futures Industry magazine has an excellent article describing this structure: Omnibus Accounts: The Portal to Cross-Border Trading, by Leslie Sutphen & Jeff Huang. This article is U.S. centric, but similar structures work for all normal market economies.
The picture that I'm getting is that if India is able to obtain the "Part 30.10 exemption" from CFTC, then it will pave the way for Indian brokers to directly sell to US customers. Else, the Omnibus Account is the only way. It will involve bilateral contracts between a U.S. brokerage firm and an Indian brokerage firm. The Indian firm will treat the orders coming from the U.S. brokerage firm as one big customer, except for the purpose of a `large trader reporting system' (which isn't yet in place in India) where the names of large positions are required.
The article says: Regulatory authorities in some countries have responded by banning omnibus accounts, but this leads to at least two problems. First, it becomes less efficient for global brokers and their customers to enter those markets, and in some cases legally impossible. Second, some market participants will resort to trading "look-alike" contracts with their broker on an over-the-counter basis. The broker then offsets these contracts by establishing an identical position on the exchange. This arrangement does allow these customers to trade these markets, but it provides the regulators with even less information on the ultimate customer. In any case, many institutional investors do not like the lack of price transparency of over-the-counter contracts, so they avoid these markets. This deprives new exchanges of liquidity.
In India, these "look-alike" contracts go by the name of Participatory Notes. :-)
I found it fascinating that in the same issue of Futures Industry magazine, there was an article on developments in Taiwan which is a country which is in the midst of this FII -> Ombinus Accounts transition. Taiwan is like India in having a very big direct retail participation in the securities markets. Roughly 10% of their population trades - in an Indian setting, that would translate to 100 million direct market participants. Taiwan is trying to move towards one thing which we have already done right: a merger between the spot stock exchange and the futures exchange. Right from the L. C. Gupta report onwards, India has been clearheaded on this, requiring no silly separation between the spot and the derivative. But the other frontiers which Taiwan is moving on are a jump ahead of us. They are removing their QFII system, and shifting to omnibus accounts. They are worrying about offering a range of traded products which are interesting to global market participants - such as gold futures and a dollar denominated Taiwanese stock market index - so as to make Taiwan a trading centre for market participants from all over the world. They are increasing the size of position limits. Taiwan is one of the unhappy countries which has taxation of financial transactions - a bad idea in public finance if there ever was one. They seem to be headed to drop the tax rate from 2.5 basis points to 1 basis point. Finally, you might find this article on Mexico interesting; they already have omnibus accounts.
NEWS AT GLANCE
Wockhardt receives US FDA approval for anti-inflammatory injection-no significant impactWockhardt Ltd has announced US FDA approval for marketing Ketorolac anti-inflammatory injection in the US market, its third US FDA approval in the last ten days. Ketorolac is a potent non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug used in the management of acute pain following surgery and trauma. Over 40 million vials of Ketorolac injections, valued at $36 million, are consumed annually by hospitals across United States, as per IMS. The Company’s wholly-owned subsidiary Wockhardt USA Inc will be marketing Ketorolac injection directly to hospitals, wholesalers, doctor clinics and managed care Companies. The injections are manufactured at the US FDA-certified sterile formulation plant at Waluj, Maharashtra.
Steel firms to raise prices from April 1 29 Mar 2007After rolling back prices earlier this month to help the government keep inflation in check, steel companies are gearing up to increase prices by Rs500-1,000 per tonne from April 1.The industry plans to raise prices cautiously though landed import prices are higher than domestic prices by Rs2,500-3,000 per tonne. The ruling price of hot rolled coils (HRC) stands at Rs27,000 (approximately $613) per tonne. The price hike will put the industry in confrontation with the government.
Satyam in $200 million 5-yr dealSatyam Computer Services, a leading global IT services company, today signed an estimated $200 million (around Rs 900 crore) five-year contract with California-based Applied Materials, a global leader in manufacturing microchips. Satyam will provide application development, maintenance, and support (ADMS) besides business transformation core technology services to the US-based company through a managed services delivery model.
Concor forms JV with Gateway
Container Corporation of India (Concor) and Gateway Distriparks (GDL) have entered into an agreement to set up a JV to construct and operate a rail linked ICD at Garhi Harsaru, Gurgaon, which will connect NCR to the western ports. GDL’s 100% subsidiary, Gateway Rail Freight Pvt. Ltd., will have a 51% stake in the JV, while Concor will have the balance 49% stake in the JV. The incorporation of the JV will replace the existing agreement between Concor and GDL on train operations from GDL’s ICD at Garhi.
Currently, GDL has approximately 12 acres of land under which it is operating the current Garhi ICD. Moreover, GDL has acquired another 88 acres of land contiguous to its existing ICD. The total 100 acres of land will be transferred to the JV set up by Concor and GDL for ICD operations. The total cost of setting up the ICD is estimated to be ~Rs700mn, which is likely to be funded at a gearing of 2:1, having an equity capital of Rs210mn. The revenues accruing from the ICD will be shared between Concor and GDL as per their stake in the JV.This event is positive for GDL in the long run
Reliance to focus on domestic market for retail expansion
Reliance Industries Ltd. will focus expansion of its retail activities on its domestic market and probably won’t move into Europe or North America for a long, long time, as per the statement of the Reliance’s lifestyle division CEO Bijou Kurien. The company aims to have 2,000 Fresh Stores outlets selling produce in five years.
India Plans to Allow Short-Selling of Stocks in Futures MarketIndia will allow short-selling of stocks by institutional investors in the futures and options market. Currently, shares of 159 companies are traded in the futures and options market. Damodaran said the regulator will formulate rules for mutual funds planning to invest in real estate after the Ministry of Company Affairs prepares a law that will specify how to value real-estate assets.
Strides Arcolab gets USFDA’s tentative nod for HIV drug
Strides Arcolab Ltd has received tentative approval from the United States Food and Drug Administration (US FDA) for Efavirenz tablets under the expedited review provisions of the President’s Emergency Plan for Aids Relief (PEPFAR) program. Efavirenz is a non nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor which prevents the AIDS virus from reproducing in cells. Efavirenz is used in combination with other anti-retroviral agents for the treatment of HIV-infections and is a key component of drug r egimens for patients who are on concurrent treatment for tuberculosis.
Lupin, Glenmark sued in US on patent infringement
Lupin and Glenmark Pharmaceuticals have been sued by multinational pharmaceutical companies, Schering Corporation and Wyeth in the US in two separate patent infringement cases. Wyeth Pharmaceuticals sued Lupin in the Maryland district court on March 12 for challenging three patents on Wyeth’s Effexor XR capsule (Venlafaxine hydrochloride), a blockbuster anti-depressent drug. Lupin had filed an abbreviated new drug application (ANDA) to obtain US FDA approval for generic versions of venlafaxine hydrochloride extended-release capsules in 37.5mg, 75mg, and 150mg dosage strengths.
Glenmark Pharmaceuticals has been sued by Schering Corporation and MSP Company Singapore LLC in the New Jersey district court for filing an ANDA with the US FDA seeking regulatory approval for the generic version of the anti-cholestrol drug Ezetimibe, marketed by Schering as ’Zetia’. Glenmark is believed to be the first to file ANDA for Ezetimibe, on October 25, 2006.
Ranbaxy launches asthma drug OsovairPharmaceutical major Ranbaxy Laboratories today announced the launch of its branded product, Osovair inhalation capsules in India for the treatment of Asthma. This product combines Long Acting Beta 2 Agonist (LABA) Formoterol and the new inhaled corticosteroid Ciclesonide. The drug contains 12mcg of formoterol making it the first ICS/LABA combination of its type to be approved any where in the world.Osovair is available in various strengths as Osovair 160 mcg, Osovair 320 mcg, depending on the severity of Asthma patients. The product is to be used only with the Rheohaler, which is a capsule based multidose dry-powder inhaler
Hindalco Industries Owners May Raise StakeAs per media reports, Hindalco Industries Ltd.’s owners may increase their stake in the Indian company. Birla’s family owns 37% of the company. Hindalco convened a shareholders’ meeting yesterday to vote on the sale of 67.5 million shares and 80 million warrants for as much as 26 billion rupees ($604 million) to the owners. Hindalco is India’s biggest metals company.
Petronet doubles imports as demand risesPetronet LNG, India’s biggest liquefied natural gas importer, said it has committed to buy 24 spot cargoes in the year ending March 2008, doubling imports from a year earlier as demand rises. Petronet has signed a contract for 12 shipments from one producer for delivery starting in June. Contracts for a further 12 will be signed by mid-April. The supplies will come from Qatar, Oman, Algeria and Egypt. The increased imports may make state-controlled Petronet the world’s largest buyer of spot cargoes. A $414 million pipeline from the company’s 5 million metric tonne-a-year terminal in Dahej to India’s largest gas-fired power plant in Dabhol may be completed by June.
ABG Shipyard bags Rs 60-cr order from Cyprus
ABG Shipyard has received an order for construction of one APS 100-tonne tug at a price of $13.50 million (Rs 60 crore) from Lamnalco Ltd, Cyprus. The vessel will be delivered to Lamnalco by May 2009. As of date ABG Shipyard has delivered six vessels and another five vessels (besides the present order) are under construction for Lamnalco Ltd. The company’s present order book position stands at about Rs 3,455 crore. ABG Shipyard, the largest private sector shipyard in India, builds a wide variety of ships, ranging from bulk carriers, deck barges and interceptor boats to anchor handling supply ships, driving support ships, tugs and offshore vessels.
Rain Commodities opts out of acquisition race
Rain Commodities Ltd (RCL) has opted out of the race to acquire assets of Great Lakes Carbon Income Fund, Canada in the wake of a higher bid price from Oxbow Carbon & Minerals Holdings Inc. Oxbow came up with a proposal of Canadian $14.00 per unit in cash, to acquire all of the assets of the fund on March 20. This is effectively 20% higher than the effective per unit price of C$11.60 set forth in RCL’s agreement through its subsidiaries with the fund notified on February 5.
Elecon bags order for gearboxes
Elecon Engineering Co Ltd, Gujarat, has bagged a contract for supplying the main propulsion gearboxes for India ’s first indigenous aircraft carrier. This is the company’s second endeavour in sophisticated marine gears technology after delivery of gearboxes for Navy’s new stealth warships under construction at Mazagon Docks Ltd. The marine gearboxes for the aircraft carrier would be one of the largest and most complex to be installed on the ships and would need precision manufacturing technology to achieve stringent quality and reliability standards laid down for marine applications.
Kilburn Engg bags Rs5.5 cr order from Thai co
Kilburn Engineering has been awarded a $1.26 million (Rs5.5 crore) order by Thai Carbon Black Public of Thailand, for supply of rotary dryer drum along with accessories.
Parsvanath to develop 100 acre Parsvanath City inUjjain
Parsvnath Developers Ltd., one of India’s leading real estate developers is now set to develop a 100-acre world-class integrated township, Parsvnath City at Dewas Road, Ujjain. The approximate cost of the entire project is Rs.1.65bn.This 100-acre ultra modern township consists of over 1000 plots ranging from 165 sq yards to 400 sq yards including independent built up villas.
Steel firms to raise prices from April 1 29 Mar 2007After rolling back prices earlier this month to help the government keep inflation in check, steel companies are gearing up to increase prices by Rs500-1,000 per tonne from April 1.The industry plans to raise prices cautiously though landed import prices are higher than domestic prices by Rs2,500-3,000 per tonne. The ruling price of hot rolled coils (HRC) stands at Rs27,000 (approximately $613) per tonne. The price hike will put the industry in confrontation with the government.
Satyam in $200 million 5-yr dealSatyam Computer Services, a leading global IT services company, today signed an estimated $200 million (around Rs 900 crore) five-year contract with California-based Applied Materials, a global leader in manufacturing microchips. Satyam will provide application development, maintenance, and support (ADMS) besides business transformation core technology services to the US-based company through a managed services delivery model.
Concor forms JV with Gateway
Container Corporation of India (Concor) and Gateway Distriparks (GDL) have entered into an agreement to set up a JV to construct and operate a rail linked ICD at Garhi Harsaru, Gurgaon, which will connect NCR to the western ports. GDL’s 100% subsidiary, Gateway Rail Freight Pvt. Ltd., will have a 51% stake in the JV, while Concor will have the balance 49% stake in the JV. The incorporation of the JV will replace the existing agreement between Concor and GDL on train operations from GDL’s ICD at Garhi.
Currently, GDL has approximately 12 acres of land under which it is operating the current Garhi ICD. Moreover, GDL has acquired another 88 acres of land contiguous to its existing ICD. The total 100 acres of land will be transferred to the JV set up by Concor and GDL for ICD operations. The total cost of setting up the ICD is estimated to be ~Rs700mn, which is likely to be funded at a gearing of 2:1, having an equity capital of Rs210mn. The revenues accruing from the ICD will be shared between Concor and GDL as per their stake in the JV.This event is positive for GDL in the long run
Reliance to focus on domestic market for retail expansion
Reliance Industries Ltd. will focus expansion of its retail activities on its domestic market and probably won’t move into Europe or North America for a long, long time, as per the statement of the Reliance’s lifestyle division CEO Bijou Kurien. The company aims to have 2,000 Fresh Stores outlets selling produce in five years.
India Plans to Allow Short-Selling of Stocks in Futures MarketIndia will allow short-selling of stocks by institutional investors in the futures and options market. Currently, shares of 159 companies are traded in the futures and options market. Damodaran said the regulator will formulate rules for mutual funds planning to invest in real estate after the Ministry of Company Affairs prepares a law that will specify how to value real-estate assets.
Strides Arcolab gets USFDA’s tentative nod for HIV drug
Strides Arcolab Ltd has received tentative approval from the United States Food and Drug Administration (US FDA) for Efavirenz tablets under the expedited review provisions of the President’s Emergency Plan for Aids Relief (PEPFAR) program. Efavirenz is a non nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor which prevents the AIDS virus from reproducing in cells. Efavirenz is used in combination with other anti-retroviral agents for the treatment of HIV-infections and is a key component of drug r egimens for patients who are on concurrent treatment for tuberculosis.
Lupin, Glenmark sued in US on patent infringement
Lupin and Glenmark Pharmaceuticals have been sued by multinational pharmaceutical companies, Schering Corporation and Wyeth in the US in two separate patent infringement cases. Wyeth Pharmaceuticals sued Lupin in the Maryland district court on March 12 for challenging three patents on Wyeth’s Effexor XR capsule (Venlafaxine hydrochloride), a blockbuster anti-depressent drug. Lupin had filed an abbreviated new drug application (ANDA) to obtain US FDA approval for generic versions of venlafaxine hydrochloride extended-release capsules in 37.5mg, 75mg, and 150mg dosage strengths.
Glenmark Pharmaceuticals has been sued by Schering Corporation and MSP Company Singapore LLC in the New Jersey district court for filing an ANDA with the US FDA seeking regulatory approval for the generic version of the anti-cholestrol drug Ezetimibe, marketed by Schering as ’Zetia’. Glenmark is believed to be the first to file ANDA for Ezetimibe, on October 25, 2006.
Ranbaxy launches asthma drug OsovairPharmaceutical major Ranbaxy Laboratories today announced the launch of its branded product, Osovair inhalation capsules in India for the treatment of Asthma. This product combines Long Acting Beta 2 Agonist (LABA) Formoterol and the new inhaled corticosteroid Ciclesonide. The drug contains 12mcg of formoterol making it the first ICS/LABA combination of its type to be approved any where in the world.Osovair is available in various strengths as Osovair 160 mcg, Osovair 320 mcg, depending on the severity of Asthma patients. The product is to be used only with the Rheohaler, which is a capsule based multidose dry-powder inhaler
Hindalco Industries Owners May Raise StakeAs per media reports, Hindalco Industries Ltd.’s owners may increase their stake in the Indian company. Birla’s family owns 37% of the company. Hindalco convened a shareholders’ meeting yesterday to vote on the sale of 67.5 million shares and 80 million warrants for as much as 26 billion rupees ($604 million) to the owners. Hindalco is India’s biggest metals company.
Petronet doubles imports as demand risesPetronet LNG, India’s biggest liquefied natural gas importer, said it has committed to buy 24 spot cargoes in the year ending March 2008, doubling imports from a year earlier as demand rises. Petronet has signed a contract for 12 shipments from one producer for delivery starting in June. Contracts for a further 12 will be signed by mid-April. The supplies will come from Qatar, Oman, Algeria and Egypt. The increased imports may make state-controlled Petronet the world’s largest buyer of spot cargoes. A $414 million pipeline from the company’s 5 million metric tonne-a-year terminal in Dahej to India’s largest gas-fired power plant in Dabhol may be completed by June.
ABG Shipyard bags Rs 60-cr order from Cyprus
ABG Shipyard has received an order for construction of one APS 100-tonne tug at a price of $13.50 million (Rs 60 crore) from Lamnalco Ltd, Cyprus. The vessel will be delivered to Lamnalco by May 2009. As of date ABG Shipyard has delivered six vessels and another five vessels (besides the present order) are under construction for Lamnalco Ltd. The company’s present order book position stands at about Rs 3,455 crore. ABG Shipyard, the largest private sector shipyard in India, builds a wide variety of ships, ranging from bulk carriers, deck barges and interceptor boats to anchor handling supply ships, driving support ships, tugs and offshore vessels.
Rain Commodities opts out of acquisition race
Rain Commodities Ltd (RCL) has opted out of the race to acquire assets of Great Lakes Carbon Income Fund, Canada in the wake of a higher bid price from Oxbow Carbon & Minerals Holdings Inc. Oxbow came up with a proposal of Canadian $14.00 per unit in cash, to acquire all of the assets of the fund on March 20. This is effectively 20% higher than the effective per unit price of C$11.60 set forth in RCL’s agreement through its subsidiaries with the fund notified on February 5.
Elecon bags order for gearboxes
Elecon Engineering Co Ltd, Gujarat, has bagged a contract for supplying the main propulsion gearboxes for India ’s first indigenous aircraft carrier. This is the company’s second endeavour in sophisticated marine gears technology after delivery of gearboxes for Navy’s new stealth warships under construction at Mazagon Docks Ltd. The marine gearboxes for the aircraft carrier would be one of the largest and most complex to be installed on the ships and would need precision manufacturing technology to achieve stringent quality and reliability standards laid down for marine applications.
Kilburn Engg bags Rs5.5 cr order from Thai co
Kilburn Engineering has been awarded a $1.26 million (Rs5.5 crore) order by Thai Carbon Black Public of Thailand, for supply of rotary dryer drum along with accessories.
Parsvanath to develop 100 acre Parsvanath City inUjjain
Parsvnath Developers Ltd., one of India’s leading real estate developers is now set to develop a 100-acre world-class integrated township, Parsvnath City at Dewas Road, Ujjain. The approximate cost of the entire project is Rs.1.65bn.This 100-acre ultra modern township consists of over 1000 plots ranging from 165 sq yards to 400 sq yards including independent built up villas.
TELEDATA- A SAGA CONTINOUS ........
record date, if everything goes well, should well be within the next 30 days.The future projected results till 2009 was given by the co. in a brochure, which is paper. Hence we can say the results were on paper...hahaha. Well jokes apart, we must acknowledge that whatever targets the co. have given till now have been achieved. For example:1) co said it will achieve 1000 cr turnover in 2006-it achieved.2) co said one year back that it will demerge. It is happening.3) co said several months ago that turnover in 2007 will be 2500 cr. It is expected to get more than 4000cr. turnover in 2007.(till 1st 9 months turnover was 2250 cr and profit 280 cr).So we must start believing the co. when it says that it will acieve turnover of 16000cr and profit of 1250 cr by 2009 (all 3 combined cos).I firmly believe that teledata is a multibagger. Short term ups and downs will be there. but ultimately in long term it will multiply your money.
Qtr target for each of the demerged co. upto 2009. We shall now see > Q1 2007-08 target for each co.> > 1) Teledata informatics : Revenue/profit : 375/50 cr for Q1.> > lets ignore the remaining Qtr targets and assume that for full year > > REVENUE/PROFIT : (375 * 4)/(50 * 4) = 1500/200 cr.> NO of SHARES ISSUED : 19.66 cr.> EPS = 200/19.66 = 10> assume PE = 5 (actually PE for education/power/ utility/agro is much > more. really MUCH MUCH more)> PRICE OF TELEDATA INFORMATICS SHARE : 10 * 5 = Rs. 50>
2) Teledata marine : Revenue/profit : 430/100 cr for Q1.> > lets ignore the remaining Qtr targets and assume that for full year > > REVENUE/PROFIT : (430 * 4)/(100 * 4) = 1720/400 cr.> NO of SHARES ISSUED : 14.75 cr.> EPS = 400/14.75 = 27> assume PE = 5 (actually PE should be higher due to other activities > like marine software/logistics/ insurance/ pollutioncomlian ce/KPO/LPG > distribution/ Port activities)> PRICE OF TELEDATA MARINE SHARE : 27 * 5 = Rs. 135>
3) Teledata technology : Revenue/profit : 2500/70 cr for Q1.> > lets ignore the remaining Qtr targets and assume that for full year > > REVENUE/PROFIT : (2500 * 4)/(70 * 4) = 10000/280 cr.> NO of SHARES ISSUED : 14.58 cr.> EPS = 280/14.58 = 20> assume PE = 5 (actually PE for IT sector is much higher)> PRICE OF TELEDATA TECHNOLOGY SHARE : 20 * 5 = Rs. 100
SO WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING 3 COMAPANIES:> > 1) TELEDATA INFORMATICS : PRICE : Rs. 50> 2) TELEDATA MARINE : PRICE : Rs. 135> 3) TELEDATA TECHNOLOGY : PRICE: Rs. 100> > Assuming one buys 100 shares today at RS 55 then > COST OF ACQUISITION OF 100 shares = Rs. 5500> > After demerger we get 100 shares of teledata informatics and 50 > shares each of the other 2 cos.> > SO THE PORTFOLIO OF 100 TELEDATA SHARES COULD GO UPTO> > 100*50 + 135*50 + 100*50 = 16750 (AFTER DEMERGER)> > ie each teledata shares (before demerger) could in effect go from Rs. > 55 to Rs. 167 AFTER demerger ie a PROFIT POTENTIAL of approx 200%.>
however before demerger my target is AROUND Rs 100. > > Well, AS PER THE CHARTS the stock spiked from 16-17 congestion area > to reach max around 55 around 2 months ago. Then it formed a down > trend which can be considered to be FLAG chart pattern. Later it > broke out of the flag at around 45. So as per the charts next target > could be (breakout from flag = 45) + (flagpole = 55 - 16) = 45 + 39 = > 84> > SO THE NEXT IMMEDIATE TARGET IS 80 +
Qtr target for each of the demerged co. upto 2009. We shall now see > Q1 2007-08 target for each co.> > 1) Teledata informatics : Revenue/profit : 375/50 cr for Q1.> > lets ignore the remaining Qtr targets and assume that for full year > > REVENUE/PROFIT : (375 * 4)/(50 * 4) = 1500/200 cr.> NO of SHARES ISSUED : 19.66 cr.> EPS = 200/19.66 = 10> assume PE = 5 (actually PE for education/power/ utility/agro is much > more. really MUCH MUCH more)> PRICE OF TELEDATA INFORMATICS SHARE : 10 * 5 = Rs. 50>
2) Teledata marine : Revenue/profit : 430/100 cr for Q1.> > lets ignore the remaining Qtr targets and assume that for full year > > REVENUE/PROFIT : (430 * 4)/(100 * 4) = 1720/400 cr.> NO of SHARES ISSUED : 14.75 cr.> EPS = 400/14.75 = 27> assume PE = 5 (actually PE should be higher due to other activities > like marine software/logistics/ insurance/ pollutioncomlian ce/KPO/LPG > distribution/ Port activities)> PRICE OF TELEDATA MARINE SHARE : 27 * 5 = Rs. 135>
3) Teledata technology : Revenue/profit : 2500/70 cr for Q1.> > lets ignore the remaining Qtr targets and assume that for full year > > REVENUE/PROFIT : (2500 * 4)/(70 * 4) = 10000/280 cr.> NO of SHARES ISSUED : 14.58 cr.> EPS = 280/14.58 = 20> assume PE = 5 (actually PE for IT sector is much higher)> PRICE OF TELEDATA TECHNOLOGY SHARE : 20 * 5 = Rs. 100
SO WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING 3 COMAPANIES:> > 1) TELEDATA INFORMATICS : PRICE : Rs. 50> 2) TELEDATA MARINE : PRICE : Rs. 135> 3) TELEDATA TECHNOLOGY : PRICE: Rs. 100> > Assuming one buys 100 shares today at RS 55 then > COST OF ACQUISITION OF 100 shares = Rs. 5500> > After demerger we get 100 shares of teledata informatics and 50 > shares each of the other 2 cos.> > SO THE PORTFOLIO OF 100 TELEDATA SHARES COULD GO UPTO> > 100*50 + 135*50 + 100*50 = 16750 (AFTER DEMERGER)> > ie each teledata shares (before demerger) could in effect go from Rs. > 55 to Rs. 167 AFTER demerger ie a PROFIT POTENTIAL of approx 200%.>
however before demerger my target is AROUND Rs 100. > > Well, AS PER THE CHARTS the stock spiked from 16-17 congestion area > to reach max around 55 around 2 months ago. Then it formed a down > trend which can be considered to be FLAG chart pattern. Later it > broke out of the flag at around 45. So as per the charts next target > could be (breakout from flag = 45) + (flagpole = 55 - 16) = 45 + 39 = > 84> > SO THE NEXT IMMEDIATE TARGET IS 80 +
INTRADAY- RISKY CALLS STRICTELY FOLLOW SL
BUY TATAMOTOR@717 SL 710 TGT-728-35
BUY HCC@89.5 SL 87 TGT 91-93
BUY BAJAJAUTO@2425 SL 2420 TGT-2450-65-70
PLZ FOLLOW STRICT STOP LOSSES..BELOW THEY THEY ARE BEARISH .NO SIGN OF COVER IN INTRDAY ..
BUY HCC@89.5 SL 87 TGT 91-93
BUY BAJAJAUTO@2425 SL 2420 TGT-2450-65-70
PLZ FOLLOW STRICT STOP LOSSES..BELOW THEY THEY ARE BEARISH .NO SIGN OF COVER IN INTRDAY ..
LONG TERM CALL-ESSEL PROPACK
ESSEL PRO PAC
cmp 73 tgt 110 in 12 months
In a little over two decades, Essel Propack has emerged as the largest laminated tubes manufacturer in the world with a 33% market share. With its lamitubes business reaching maturity, the company is diversifying into other sectors like plastic tubes, specialty packaging and medical devices where it can leverage its core competence in polymer processing to de-risk its business and spur growth. We initiate coverage on the company with an OUTPERFORMER rating.
At the current price of Rs 73.5, the stock is trading at 10.7x its CY07E EPS of Rs 6.9 and 8.1x its CY08E EPS of Rs 9, which is lower than BSE Mid-cap Index that is currently trading at 13.7x FY07 earnings. On an EV/EBIDTA basis, the stock is available at 5.5x CY07E earnings and 4.6x CY08E earnings. Given the company's global leadership status and foray into fast-growing businesses, we believe current valuations are extremely attractive.
We rate the stock an OUTPERFORMER with a 12 month price target of Rs 110 at 11x CY08E earnings.
cmp 73 tgt 110 in 12 months
In a little over two decades, Essel Propack has emerged as the largest laminated tubes manufacturer in the world with a 33% market share. With its lamitubes business reaching maturity, the company is diversifying into other sectors like plastic tubes, specialty packaging and medical devices where it can leverage its core competence in polymer processing to de-risk its business and spur growth. We initiate coverage on the company with an OUTPERFORMER rating.
At the current price of Rs 73.5, the stock is trading at 10.7x its CY07E EPS of Rs 6.9 and 8.1x its CY08E EPS of Rs 9, which is lower than BSE Mid-cap Index that is currently trading at 13.7x FY07 earnings. On an EV/EBIDTA basis, the stock is available at 5.5x CY07E earnings and 4.6x CY08E earnings. Given the company's global leadership status and foray into fast-growing businesses, we believe current valuations are extremely attractive.
We rate the stock an OUTPERFORMER with a 12 month price target of Rs 110 at 11x CY08E earnings.
SHORT TERM CALL
According to analyst of one of the well known broking company this counter among heavy engineering pack and company financials are also sound. This counter has not witnessed high momentum as compared to the other heavy engineering companies. Due to mayhem in the market strong scripts like PRAJ is avaliable at attractive valuations. This could be a nice pick for short term or medium term gain.
Buy Godrej Consumer; target of Rs 191: IL&FS
Broking house, IL&FS Investsmart is bullish on Godrej Consumer Products and has recommended buy rating on the stock with a target of Rs 191.
IL&FS Investsmart report on Godrej Consumer:
Better pricing power; Attractive valuations
Godrej Consumer Products (GCPL) is one of India’s leading players in the FMCG industry, operating mainly in soap and hair colour segments. During FY06-FY09E, GCPL’s sales and net profits are expected to increase by a CAGR of 24.0% and 24.8% respectively. GCPL’s net sales are estimated at Rs11.38bn in FY08 and Rs13.34bn in FY09 while net profits are estimated at Rs1.88bn and Rs2.36bn respectIvely.The stock is trading at a P/E multiple of 17.5x and 14x based on FY08 and FY09 earnings, respectively. It is one of the best bets in the FMCG sector as it is trading at a FY08E PEG of 0.5. We initiate our coverage on the stock with a ‘Buy’ rating.
Key Investment highlights:
Increasing market share in soaps:
GCPL has increased its market share in the soaps from 6.5% in FY04 to 9.2% in 9MFY07. We expect Godrej No.1 to continue driving the sales of the soaps division. We believe GCPL would be more aggressive in increasing prices, going forward; The division’s revenues are likely to grow at an 19.7% CAGR from FY06 to FY09E.
Hair colours on the growth path:
GCPL’s hair colour division is likely to register a 17.6% CAGR during FY06 and FY09E, supported by the company’s enhanced focus and better pricing power. The growth is likely to driven by the recent increase in product prices and higher growth in cream-based colours.
Synergies from acquisition of Keyline Brands (Keyline) and Rapidol:
GCPL would benefit from the synergies achieved from its acquisitions. Introduction of GCPL products, especially hair colour in the U.K. and S.A. markets, provides great opportunity for the company to drive growth in the international markets.
Valuations:
We expect GCPL to record EPS of Rs8.3 in FY08 and Rs10.4 in FY09. We expect ROCE of 68.8% and ROE of 78.8% in FY08. The stock is currently trading at a P/E multiple of 17.5x and 14x, based on FY08 and FY09 earnings respectively. We initiate a ‘Buy’ recommendation on the stock with a price target of Rs 191, an upside of 31% from the current levels.
IL&FS Investsmart report on Godrej Consumer:
Better pricing power; Attractive valuations
Godrej Consumer Products (GCPL) is one of India’s leading players in the FMCG industry, operating mainly in soap and hair colour segments. During FY06-FY09E, GCPL’s sales and net profits are expected to increase by a CAGR of 24.0% and 24.8% respectively. GCPL’s net sales are estimated at Rs11.38bn in FY08 and Rs13.34bn in FY09 while net profits are estimated at Rs1.88bn and Rs2.36bn respectIvely.The stock is trading at a P/E multiple of 17.5x and 14x based on FY08 and FY09 earnings, respectively. It is one of the best bets in the FMCG sector as it is trading at a FY08E PEG of 0.5. We initiate our coverage on the stock with a ‘Buy’ rating.
Key Investment highlights:
Increasing market share in soaps:
GCPL has increased its market share in the soaps from 6.5% in FY04 to 9.2% in 9MFY07. We expect Godrej No.1 to continue driving the sales of the soaps division. We believe GCPL would be more aggressive in increasing prices, going forward; The division’s revenues are likely to grow at an 19.7% CAGR from FY06 to FY09E.
Hair colours on the growth path:
GCPL’s hair colour division is likely to register a 17.6% CAGR during FY06 and FY09E, supported by the company’s enhanced focus and better pricing power. The growth is likely to driven by the recent increase in product prices and higher growth in cream-based colours.
Synergies from acquisition of Keyline Brands (Keyline) and Rapidol:
GCPL would benefit from the synergies achieved from its acquisitions. Introduction of GCPL products, especially hair colour in the U.K. and S.A. markets, provides great opportunity for the company to drive growth in the international markets.
Valuations:
We expect GCPL to record EPS of Rs8.3 in FY08 and Rs10.4 in FY09. We expect ROCE of 68.8% and ROE of 78.8% in FY08. The stock is currently trading at a P/E multiple of 17.5x and 14x, based on FY08 and FY09 earnings respectively. We initiate a ‘Buy’ recommendation on the stock with a price target of Rs 191, an upside of 31% from the current levels.
Elecon Eng - Fundamental BUY
Elecon Engineering Face Value - Rs 2 Buy Rs 367
Ticker: 505700 Equity: Rs 6.13 crore H/L: Rs 478/144
Elecon Engineering (EEL) is into manufacturing of material handling equipments, which are used in a range of products from elevators, conveyors and gears to material handling plants. EEL has a dominant position in the industrial gear business, with 26 per cent plus market share in the industry. EEL also manufactures the largest gearbox in the country. The company has a strong order backlog of Rs 505 crore and Rs 150 crore in the material handling division and transmission equipment division respectively. This overall order backlog of Rs 655 crore is around 1.48x its FY06 revenue and gives a clear visibility of earnings going forward. The company is planning to manufacture wind mill gearboxes and is also planning to manufacture wind mills below 600 KVA capacities. The segment has good amount of opportunities and also has better margins than the existing business segments. EEL has posted strong results in 9MFY07 with positive improvement at the operating level. The company is expected to carry similar performance in FY08 and hence is a good buy at current levels.
Ticker: 505700 Equity: Rs 6.13 crore H/L: Rs 478/144
Elecon Engineering (EEL) is into manufacturing of material handling equipments, which are used in a range of products from elevators, conveyors and gears to material handling plants. EEL has a dominant position in the industrial gear business, with 26 per cent plus market share in the industry. EEL also manufactures the largest gearbox in the country. The company has a strong order backlog of Rs 505 crore and Rs 150 crore in the material handling division and transmission equipment division respectively. This overall order backlog of Rs 655 crore is around 1.48x its FY06 revenue and gives a clear visibility of earnings going forward. The company is planning to manufacture wind mill gearboxes and is also planning to manufacture wind mills below 600 KVA capacities. The segment has good amount of opportunities and also has better margins than the existing business segments. EEL has posted strong results in 9MFY07 with positive improvement at the operating level. The company is expected to carry similar performance in FY08 and hence is a good buy at current levels.
INTRADAY CALLS ..30.03.07
BUY INFOSYS 2010 SL 2000
TECHNICAL TRAILS
SAIL BUY ON DIPS FOR TARGET OF 120+ IN COMING DAYS
SOBHA BUY ON ALL DIPS CHARTS SHOW MEDIUM TERM DOWN TREND TO BE OVER ....FIRST TIME SINCE LISTING
IDEA OVERBOUGHT SELL TO REENTER BELOW 90 IN SHORT TERM
TECHNICAL TRAILS
SAIL BUY ON DIPS FOR TARGET OF 120+ IN COMING DAYS
SOBHA BUY ON ALL DIPS CHARTS SHOW MEDIUM TERM DOWN TREND TO BE OVER ....FIRST TIME SINCE LISTING
IDEA OVERBOUGHT SELL TO REENTER BELOW 90 IN SHORT TERM
Thursday, March 29, 2007
stocks for short term as well as for intraday ..for 30.03.07
BPL(56.20)
BSEL Infra(62.55)
Supreme Holdin(15.94)
Silverline(16.20)
RDB Ind(118)
This stocks have been recommended for the short term and carry high risk as fundamentals may or may not back the recommendations so plz as u get the profits get out of these stocks they are momentum stocks .
BSEL Infra(62.55)
Supreme Holdin(15.94)
Silverline(16.20)
RDB Ind(118)
This stocks have been recommended for the short term and carry high risk as fundamentals may or may not back the recommendations so plz as u get the profits get out of these stocks they are momentum stocks .
delvery call-TRF - Growth in order book
TRF Ltd Face Value - Rs 10 Buy Rs 515
Ticker: 505854 Equity: Rs 5.50 crore H/L: 640/ 239
Tata Robinson Fraser (TRF), specialises in the manufacture of advanced systems for conveying, stacking, blending, reclaiming and processing of bulk raw materials. TRF also undertakes turnkey contracts for total bulk material handling plants. Operating margins of the company are expected to improve going forward, as TRF has changed its business policy. Now its clients buy steel for orders placed in favour of onsite fabrication. Earlier, TRF procured the material. This has resulted in the more predictable and improved operating margins. The completion of the low margin contracts has also helped the company in a major way to improve its margins. The impact of the policy can be seen from the fact that, its OPM has gone up to 8.11 per cent in 9MFY07 as compared to 6.91 per cent in 9MFY06. The current order book of the company is around Rs 450 crore which is almost 2x of its FY06 topline. TRF is also a part of a consortium including TATA Power which will set up an ultra mega power project (UMPP) plant at Mundra. The total investment for the 4000 MW plant is around 18000 crore and material handing equipments (MHE) share will be around 10 percent. TRF is targeting majority share in the MHE, which is a huge opportunity. On the financial front, the company has posted strong results for 9MFY07 with topline of Rs 205.59 crore and bottomline of Rs 10.15 crore, an increase of 49.8 per cent and 220 per cent respectively over 9MFY06. The performance is also expected to be good in FY08 on account of improved margins and growth in order book.
Ticker: 505854 Equity: Rs 5.50 crore H/L: 640/ 239
Tata Robinson Fraser (TRF), specialises in the manufacture of advanced systems for conveying, stacking, blending, reclaiming and processing of bulk raw materials. TRF also undertakes turnkey contracts for total bulk material handling plants. Operating margins of the company are expected to improve going forward, as TRF has changed its business policy. Now its clients buy steel for orders placed in favour of onsite fabrication. Earlier, TRF procured the material. This has resulted in the more predictable and improved operating margins. The completion of the low margin contracts has also helped the company in a major way to improve its margins. The impact of the policy can be seen from the fact that, its OPM has gone up to 8.11 per cent in 9MFY07 as compared to 6.91 per cent in 9MFY06. The current order book of the company is around Rs 450 crore which is almost 2x of its FY06 topline. TRF is also a part of a consortium including TATA Power which will set up an ultra mega power project (UMPP) plant at Mundra. The total investment for the 4000 MW plant is around 18000 crore and material handing equipments (MHE) share will be around 10 percent. TRF is targeting majority share in the MHE, which is a huge opportunity. On the financial front, the company has posted strong results for 9MFY07 with topline of Rs 205.59 crore and bottomline of Rs 10.15 crore, an increase of 49.8 per cent and 220 per cent respectively over 9MFY06. The performance is also expected to be good in FY08 on account of improved margins and growth in order book.
TODAY'S PERFORMANCES OF LIVE CALLS ON YAHOO MESSANGER AND ON BOLG ALSO
vishu (29/03/2007 12:18:10 AM): see our short term renuka sugar calls ......
vishu (29/03/2007 1:41:15 AM): FOR MARKET UPDATES ,INTRADAY CALLS,DELVERY CALLS VISIT- www.indianbazar.blogspot.com
vishu (29/03/2007 10:07:57 AM): our ttk prestige call posted yesterday on blog is up b y 3.5% visit -www.indianbazar.blogspot.com
vishu (29/03/2007 10:10:51 AM): ttk prestige is up by 6%.enjoyyy iy in intraday itself..
vishu (29/03/2007 10:19:43 AM): BUY GESCOCORP @ 581-582, EXIT PRICE 605-610 , STOP LOSS 572-573 -
vishu (29/03/2007 10:40:41 AM): If market trend is bullish... BUY Shree Renuka Sugars (NSE: RENUKA) CMP: 455.70 Target: 466 - 476 - 485 Stop Loss: 448 You can BUY its Future too vishu (29/03/2007 10:41:43 AM): If market trend is bullish... BUY Kotak Mahindra Bank (NSE: KOTAKBANK) CMP: 461.15 Target: 470 - 480 Stop Loss: 452
vishu (29/03/2007 11:02:08 AM): GMR Infra(355) Looking goood Sun tv(1541) Looking good at current levels with SL of 1517 Balrampur Chini(66) SL 64.5 Tgt 69 Parsvanth(253) tgt 261 SL 249 Dhampur sug(71) tgt 75 SL 69 Guj NRE COKE(37) tgt 39, 40
vishu (29/03/2007 11:42:57 AM): www.indianbazar.blogspot.com
vishu (29/03/2007 11:57:59 AM): buy sail@110 sl 108 tgt 112-113
vishu
(29/03/2007 12:03:44 PM): our intraday call indiabull real state call is rocking.....up by 4.9%vishu (29/03/2007 12:06:30 PM): buy relcap@641 sl 635 tgt 650vishu (29/03/2007 12:12:49 PM): relcap on fire....................
vishu (29/03/2007 12:13:11 PM): those who feels risk can exit here atlest 50%vishu (29/03/2007 12:14:25 PM): tgt achieved in relcapital...vishu (29/03/2007 12:20:54 PM):
ttk prestige was posted yesterday night on blog for delvery call is up by 10% in a single day ......................now traded at 112.5............enjoy........
vishu (29/03/2007 12:23:17 PM): watch repro india........anytime can hit circuit....vishu (29/03/2007 12:23:38 PM): ttk is now up by 10.5%vishu (29/03/2007 12:24:58 PM): hold hotel leela for delvery ..for 1 month
vishu (29/03/2007 12:32:35 PM): our intraday call ibrealest is now up by 6%$ acgieves all targets..enjoy...our delve call crompton greaves also doing well in weak mkts... OUR RELIANCE CAPITAL,SAIL,TTK REPRO ALL DONE VERY WELL IN SUCH A VOLATILE MARKETS. ENJOY MORE LIVE ADD VISHWA_DEEPAK1@YAHOO.COM
vishu (29/03/2007 1:41:15 AM): FOR MARKET UPDATES ,INTRADAY CALLS,DELVERY CALLS VISIT- www.indianbazar.blogspot.com
vishu (29/03/2007 10:07:57 AM): our ttk prestige call posted yesterday on blog is up b y 3.5% visit -www.indianbazar.blogspot.com
vishu (29/03/2007 10:10:51 AM): ttk prestige is up by 6%.enjoyyy iy in intraday itself..
vishu (29/03/2007 10:19:43 AM): BUY GESCOCORP @ 581-582, EXIT PRICE 605-610 , STOP LOSS 572-573 -
vishu (29/03/2007 10:40:41 AM): If market trend is bullish... BUY Shree Renuka Sugars (NSE: RENUKA) CMP: 455.70 Target: 466 - 476 - 485 Stop Loss: 448 You can BUY its Future too vishu (29/03/2007 10:41:43 AM): If market trend is bullish... BUY Kotak Mahindra Bank (NSE: KOTAKBANK) CMP: 461.15 Target: 470 - 480 Stop Loss: 452
vishu (29/03/2007 11:02:08 AM): GMR Infra(355) Looking goood Sun tv(1541) Looking good at current levels with SL of 1517 Balrampur Chini(66) SL 64.5 Tgt 69 Parsvanth(253) tgt 261 SL 249 Dhampur sug(71) tgt 75 SL 69 Guj NRE COKE(37) tgt 39, 40
vishu (29/03/2007 11:42:57 AM): www.indianbazar.blogspot.com
vishu (29/03/2007 11:57:59 AM): buy sail@110 sl 108 tgt 112-113
vishu
(29/03/2007 12:03:44 PM): our intraday call indiabull real state call is rocking.....up by 4.9%vishu (29/03/2007 12:06:30 PM): buy relcap@641 sl 635 tgt 650vishu (29/03/2007 12:12:49 PM): relcap on fire....................
vishu (29/03/2007 12:13:11 PM): those who feels risk can exit here atlest 50%vishu (29/03/2007 12:14:25 PM): tgt achieved in relcapital...vishu (29/03/2007 12:20:54 PM):
ttk prestige was posted yesterday night on blog for delvery call is up by 10% in a single day ......................now traded at 112.5............enjoy........
vishu (29/03/2007 12:23:17 PM): watch repro india........anytime can hit circuit....vishu (29/03/2007 12:23:38 PM): ttk is now up by 10.5%vishu (29/03/2007 12:24:58 PM): hold hotel leela for delvery ..for 1 month
vishu (29/03/2007 12:32:35 PM): our intraday call ibrealest is now up by 6%$ acgieves all targets..enjoy...our delve call crompton greaves also doing well in weak mkts... OUR RELIANCE CAPITAL,SAIL,TTK REPRO ALL DONE VERY WELL IN SUCH A VOLATILE MARKETS. ENJOY MORE LIVE ADD VISHWA_DEEPAK1@YAHOO.COM
VAIBHAV KAPOOR PICK
Long-term investors can buy KPIT Cummins at current level
Vibhav Kapoor of IL&FS is of the view that long term investors can buy KPIT Cummins at current level.
Vibhav Kapoor of IL&FS is of the view that long term investors can buy KPIT Cummins at current level.
icici direct rates ttk prestige to -OUTPERFORMER
COMPANY REPORT
TTK Prestige (TTKPRE)
*OUTPERFORMER*
*Current Price: Rs 107**
*Target Price: Rs 164*
*Potential Upside: 53%*
*Time Frame: 12 months*
TTK Prestige is a leading kitchen appliances company with products across the entire kitchenware segment. The company has transformed its distribution model by launching exclusive retail outlets known as 'Smart Kitchens'. The company is well placed to capitalise on the consumption boom led by the demographic shift towards nuclear families in India. We initiate coverage on the company with an OUTPERFORMER rating.
At the current price of Rs 107, the stock is trading at a P/E of 9.82x its FY07E EPS of Rs 10.9 and 7.19x its FY08E EPS of Rs 14.88. On an EV/EBIDTA basis, the stock is available at 6.87x FY07E earnings and 5.74x FY08E earnings. Given the company's aggressive retail foray and product diversification, we believe the current valuations are extremely attractive. We rate the stock an OUTPERFORMER with a 12-month price target of Rs 164, at 11x FY08E earnings.
*closing price as on 16th March 07 *C**lick here for detailed company report* <http://content.icicidirect.com/mailimages/TTK%20Prestige01.pdf> *For more such company reports, please visit iCLICK-2-GAIN*
TTK Prestige (TTKPRE)
*OUTPERFORMER*
*Current Price: Rs 107**
*Target Price: Rs 164*
*Potential Upside: 53%*
*Time Frame: 12 months*
TTK Prestige is a leading kitchen appliances company with products across the entire kitchenware segment. The company has transformed its distribution model by launching exclusive retail outlets known as 'Smart Kitchens'. The company is well placed to capitalise on the consumption boom led by the demographic shift towards nuclear families in India. We initiate coverage on the company with an OUTPERFORMER rating.
At the current price of Rs 107, the stock is trading at a P/E of 9.82x its FY07E EPS of Rs 10.9 and 7.19x its FY08E EPS of Rs 14.88. On an EV/EBIDTA basis, the stock is available at 6.87x FY07E earnings and 5.74x FY08E earnings. Given the company's aggressive retail foray and product diversification, we believe the current valuations are extremely attractive. We rate the stock an OUTPERFORMER with a 12-month price target of Rs 164, at 11x FY08E earnings.
*closing price as on 16th March 07 *C**lick here for detailed company report* <http://content.icicidirect.com/mailimages/TTK%20Prestige01.pdf> *For more such company reports, please visit iCLICK-2-GAIN*
NEWS-AGEIS LOGISTICS
The Board of Directors of Aegis Logistics Ltd. has approved the acquisition of 100% shares of Konkan Storage Systems (Kochi) Pvt. Ltd. (KCPL). KCPL has an asset block of Rs.26 crores and it owns and operates 51,000 KL Bulk Liquid Logistics Infrastructure at Kochi, one of the major ports in South India. This acquisition is in line with the Company’s plans to have a presence in at least five major ports by 2010-11.
Kochi Port is a fast growing all weather natural Port strategically located with coastal refinery and chemical/fertilizer units, almost identical to Mumbai Port. Aegis’s first priority will be to upgrade the Terminal and related facilities to global standards in tune with Aegis’s other existing sites.
Aegis continues to pursue a number of opportunities at various major Ports including acquisition and/or greenfield projects in connection with Logistics of Oil, Gas & Chemicals.
Kochi Port is a fast growing all weather natural Port strategically located with coastal refinery and chemical/fertilizer units, almost identical to Mumbai Port. Aegis’s first priority will be to upgrade the Terminal and related facilities to global standards in tune with Aegis’s other existing sites.
Aegis continues to pursue a number of opportunities at various major Ports including acquisition and/or greenfield projects in connection with Logistics of Oil, Gas & Chemicals.
Bayer Cropscience - A MultiBagger
SP Tulsian, Investment Advisor
Bayer Cropscience is likely to sell its land plot at Rs 1,600 cr. It is also likely to post an EPS of close to Rs 19 for CY 07. With P/E multiple of 18, share can touch Rs 350 in next 12 months.
Bayer Cropscience
Bayer Cropscience is an MNC engaged in crop protection and seed business. Promoter Bayer Germany is holding 71% while mutual funds, banks and financial institutions hold 8% thus having very low floating stock. The paid up equity of the company is Rs.39.50 Crore while book value per share is Rs.80. The company is having its plant at Kolshet Road, Thane of over 90 acres, on which manufacturing operations are being phased out. This land is likely to get sold by the company, which is valued at around Rs.1,600 Crore. If land gets sold, value works out to Rs.400 per share, which shall get distributed amongst the shareholders by way of special dividend, in line with MNC Policy. The company is streamlining its product portfolio by focusing on higher margin products like herbicide and seeds. The company is integrating its crop protection business with seeds business under arrangements with Pro Agro Seed Co. Ltd., a Bayer Group Company. The company is also shifting its focus from pesticides, a low margin business to herbicide and seed, which are high margin business. The company has its year ending on December. For 12 months ending Dec-2006, the company is likely to post topline of approx Rs 750 Crore and bottom-line of approx. Rs 46 Crore resulting in an EPS of close to Rs 12. For CY 07 the topline is expect to be Rs 1,000 Crore while bottom line is likely to be Rs 75 Crore giving an EPS of Rs.19. For 9 months ended 30.09.2006, the company clocked a topline of Rs 530 Crore and a bottom line of Rs 37.08 Crore on equity of Rs 39.50 Crore. Audited CY 06 results are likely to be announced by 31st March, 2007. Traditionally, July-Sept quarter is always the strong quarter for the company and in CY 06 of this quarter, topline was Rs.268 Crore and bottom line was of Rs.30.58 Crore. For Q4 of CY 06, topline is likely to be Rs.210 Crore and bottom line of Rs.10 Crore. The company is having two manufacturing units at Ankleshwar and Himmatnagar. The production at Thane plant is being phased out. The company is likely to post an EPS of close to Rs 19 for CY 07 and with P/E multiple of 18, share can touch Rs 350 mark in the next 12 months. Land sale proceeds of Rs 300 per share (net off taxes) shall further improve the valuation. Hence, share at Rs 224 is an excellent MNC bet.
Bayer Cropscience is likely to sell its land plot at Rs 1,600 cr. It is also likely to post an EPS of close to Rs 19 for CY 07. With P/E multiple of 18, share can touch Rs 350 in next 12 months.
Bayer Cropscience
Bayer Cropscience is an MNC engaged in crop protection and seed business. Promoter Bayer Germany is holding 71% while mutual funds, banks and financial institutions hold 8% thus having very low floating stock. The paid up equity of the company is Rs.39.50 Crore while book value per share is Rs.80. The company is having its plant at Kolshet Road, Thane of over 90 acres, on which manufacturing operations are being phased out. This land is likely to get sold by the company, which is valued at around Rs.1,600 Crore. If land gets sold, value works out to Rs.400 per share, which shall get distributed amongst the shareholders by way of special dividend, in line with MNC Policy. The company is streamlining its product portfolio by focusing on higher margin products like herbicide and seeds. The company is integrating its crop protection business with seeds business under arrangements with Pro Agro Seed Co. Ltd., a Bayer Group Company. The company is also shifting its focus from pesticides, a low margin business to herbicide and seed, which are high margin business. The company has its year ending on December. For 12 months ending Dec-2006, the company is likely to post topline of approx Rs 750 Crore and bottom-line of approx. Rs 46 Crore resulting in an EPS of close to Rs 12. For CY 07 the topline is expect to be Rs 1,000 Crore while bottom line is likely to be Rs 75 Crore giving an EPS of Rs.19. For 9 months ended 30.09.2006, the company clocked a topline of Rs 530 Crore and a bottom line of Rs 37.08 Crore on equity of Rs 39.50 Crore. Audited CY 06 results are likely to be announced by 31st March, 2007. Traditionally, July-Sept quarter is always the strong quarter for the company and in CY 06 of this quarter, topline was Rs.268 Crore and bottom line was of Rs.30.58 Crore. For Q4 of CY 06, topline is likely to be Rs.210 Crore and bottom line of Rs.10 Crore. The company is having two manufacturing units at Ankleshwar and Himmatnagar. The production at Thane plant is being phased out. The company is likely to post an EPS of close to Rs 19 for CY 07 and with P/E multiple of 18, share can touch Rs 350 mark in the next 12 months. Land sale proceeds of Rs 300 per share (net off taxes) shall further improve the valuation. Hence, share at Rs 224 is an excellent MNC bet.
NIFTY SUPPORT FOR TOMORROW
Though tomorrow market is expected to open with a negative bias, watch out for these two support area for nifty.i) 3732ii) 3690
One can go longs on dips (at their own risk), SL 3690 (intraday)
I think nifty will bounce from 3690 area.
Failing to do so intermediate trend will be turned down.
One can go longs on dips (at their own risk), SL 3690 (intraday)
I think nifty will bounce from 3690 area.
Failing to do so intermediate trend will be turned down.
FUNDAMENTAL CALL
Fundamental Call:-
Rel Comm:- Buy for short to medium term tgt of 485-500
Premier Exp(42) Buy for medium-long term tgt of 65-75 levels
Rel Comm:- Buy for short to medium term tgt of 485-500
Premier Exp(42) Buy for medium-long term tgt of 65-75 levels
PERFORMANCE OF REVERSE TRADING ON 28.03.07
1. Mphasis advised to sell with sl of 287 for tg of 272 – 267 . . . Crashed down to 271
2. Bank India advised to sell @ 168 sl 171. . . sl trig
3. Ivrcl advised to sell with sl of 302 tg 284 . . . Opened high at 295 and crashed down exactly to 284
4. Ster advised to sell near 487 sl 495 tg 471 – 464. . . Crashed down to 463
5. Sobha advised to sell below 756 sl 767 tg 736. . . crashed down to 725
6. Parsvnath advised to sell below 263 sl 268 tg 250. . . Crashed down to 251
7. NIFTY ADVISED TO GO SHORT ON 23RD FOR TG OF 3710 , MADE LOW OF 3752 FORM HIGH OF 3902. Now revise sl to 3840 from 3955
2. Bank India advised to sell @ 168 sl 171. . . sl trig
3. Ivrcl advised to sell with sl of 302 tg 284 . . . Opened high at 295 and crashed down exactly to 284
4. Ster advised to sell near 487 sl 495 tg 471 – 464. . . Crashed down to 463
5. Sobha advised to sell below 756 sl 767 tg 736. . . crashed down to 725
6. Parsvnath advised to sell below 263 sl 268 tg 250. . . Crashed down to 251
7. NIFTY ADVISED TO GO SHORT ON 23RD FOR TG OF 3710 , MADE LOW OF 3752 FORM HIGH OF 3902. Now revise sl to 3840 from 3955
CROMPTON GREAVES-OUTPERFORMER-FIRST GLOBAL
First Global Research has recommended an outperformer rating on Crompton Greaves.
First Global Research report on Crompton Greaves:
On a standalone basis Crompton Greaves sales increased by over 27 per cent during FY06. With all three business divisions; power, industrial and consumer displaying growth rates above 20 per cent the near term prospects are bright. On a standalone basis we expect top line to grow at around 28% and 24% respectively for FY07 and FY08. However as the company has started paying marginal tax from FY07 vis a vis Minimum Alternate Tax (MAT) in FY06 we expect Profit after taxes to show a marginal rise in FY07 on a standalone basis. In a way the consumer and industrial businesses provide the cash flow to fund power segment growth.
Crompton Greaves’ acquisition appetite is, however, is far from over. In the second half of 2006, CG acquired two Hungary-based companies - Ganz Transelektro Villamossagi Zrt (Ganz) and Transverticum Kft (TVK). The acquisition cost for both the companies stood at 35 mn euro (approximately Rs.2 bn). Management expects the Ganz acquisition to pay off in less than two years. Ganz is a loss-making company with a turnover of Rs.2 bn. CG plans to leverage Ganz’s idle capacities to make up for the shortage at Pauwels’ manufacturing facilities. The Hungarian facility will be used to service CG's European customers.
New additions to the company’s portfolio by Ganz include high-range transmission and distribution equipment of up to 800 kV; gas-insulated switchgears; rotating and traction machines of up to 8 MW (used in railway applications); and turnkey product execution capability in the T&D segment. Considering CG’s success in turning around Pauwels' operations, there is reason to believe that its recent buyout of Ganz may also pay off. Further, given its high-end product portfolio, the company’s overall margins may also improve once the integration is over.
On the domestic front, the overall scenario for CG’s three businesses - Power Systems, Industrial Systems and Consumer Products - looks good. In India, one can expect an investment of around Rs3000 bn in power generation addition from here up to 2012. For each rupee spent on power generation, approximately 40 paise must be spent on transmission and distribution networks. With Pauwel and Ganz under its belt, Crompton Greaves has the required suite of products to ride the boom in the power equipment business in the domestic market. With Power Systems contributing to 64% of revenues on a consol. basis in FY2006 on a strong wicket, the overall prospects for CG appear to be bright in the near term.
With industry capex continuing to be on an upswing, the demand for motors & alternators from user industries ranging from manufacturers of DG sets, pumps and compressors to construction equipments, is expected to be firm. As a result, Industrial Systems should continue to record healthy growth. Finally the strong pace of GDP growth and firmness in the construction sector indicate a reasonably sound business environment for the Consumer product business of CG.
CG trades at 23.4x and 19x our FY07E and FY08E EPS and at the current price, it is one of the more attractive stocks in the capital goods space. We have assumed that for FY07 and FY08, EBITDA Margins of Pauwel would show marginal improvement over FY06 levels. In the absence of sufficient financial information on Ganz, the same has not being included in any of our projections. CG is quoting at lower valuation multiples despite high growth expectations for the company over the next few years. Considering the benefits from the company’s strategic acquisitions (Pauwel and Ganz) that are likely to flow in over the next couple of years, it is our firm belief that the stock has plenty of upside left. We, therefore, reinitiate our coverage on CG with a rating of ‘Outperform.’
First Global Research report on Crompton Greaves:
On a standalone basis Crompton Greaves sales increased by over 27 per cent during FY06. With all three business divisions; power, industrial and consumer displaying growth rates above 20 per cent the near term prospects are bright. On a standalone basis we expect top line to grow at around 28% and 24% respectively for FY07 and FY08. However as the company has started paying marginal tax from FY07 vis a vis Minimum Alternate Tax (MAT) in FY06 we expect Profit after taxes to show a marginal rise in FY07 on a standalone basis. In a way the consumer and industrial businesses provide the cash flow to fund power segment growth.
Crompton Greaves’ acquisition appetite is, however, is far from over. In the second half of 2006, CG acquired two Hungary-based companies - Ganz Transelektro Villamossagi Zrt (Ganz) and Transverticum Kft (TVK). The acquisition cost for both the companies stood at 35 mn euro (approximately Rs.2 bn). Management expects the Ganz acquisition to pay off in less than two years. Ganz is a loss-making company with a turnover of Rs.2 bn. CG plans to leverage Ganz’s idle capacities to make up for the shortage at Pauwels’ manufacturing facilities. The Hungarian facility will be used to service CG's European customers.
New additions to the company’s portfolio by Ganz include high-range transmission and distribution equipment of up to 800 kV; gas-insulated switchgears; rotating and traction machines of up to 8 MW (used in railway applications); and turnkey product execution capability in the T&D segment. Considering CG’s success in turning around Pauwels' operations, there is reason to believe that its recent buyout of Ganz may also pay off. Further, given its high-end product portfolio, the company’s overall margins may also improve once the integration is over.
On the domestic front, the overall scenario for CG’s three businesses - Power Systems, Industrial Systems and Consumer Products - looks good. In India, one can expect an investment of around Rs3000 bn in power generation addition from here up to 2012. For each rupee spent on power generation, approximately 40 paise must be spent on transmission and distribution networks. With Pauwel and Ganz under its belt, Crompton Greaves has the required suite of products to ride the boom in the power equipment business in the domestic market. With Power Systems contributing to 64% of revenues on a consol. basis in FY2006 on a strong wicket, the overall prospects for CG appear to be bright in the near term.
With industry capex continuing to be on an upswing, the demand for motors & alternators from user industries ranging from manufacturers of DG sets, pumps and compressors to construction equipments, is expected to be firm. As a result, Industrial Systems should continue to record healthy growth. Finally the strong pace of GDP growth and firmness in the construction sector indicate a reasonably sound business environment for the Consumer product business of CG.
CG trades at 23.4x and 19x our FY07E and FY08E EPS and at the current price, it is one of the more attractive stocks in the capital goods space. We have assumed that for FY07 and FY08, EBITDA Margins of Pauwel would show marginal improvement over FY06 levels. In the absence of sufficient financial information on Ganz, the same has not being included in any of our projections. CG is quoting at lower valuation multiples despite high growth expectations for the company over the next few years. Considering the benefits from the company’s strategic acquisitions (Pauwel and Ganz) that are likely to flow in over the next couple of years, it is our firm belief that the stock has plenty of upside left. We, therefore, reinitiate our coverage on CG with a rating of ‘Outperform.’
technical view on market 29.03.07
MARKETS HAVE BROKEN DOWN FROM THE SUPPORT LEVEL MENTIONED BY US IN THE WEEKLY NEWSLETTER.3770.BUT WE LINK THE FALL TO THE FNO SETTLEMENT SCHEDULED FOR TOMORROW BY OPTIMISTIC IMAGINATION IS 3850 BUT ITS A HIGHLY OPTIMISTIC SCENARIO.WE CAN EXPECT BOUTS OF VOLATILTY TOMORROW.NIFTY ROLLOVER IS STILL SLUGGISH.WE ARE EXPECTING A RECOVERY IN THE SECOND HALF FOR TOMORROWS TRADING SESSION.ONE THING IS FOR GURANTED THAT EVERYONE WILL SEE A REAL TUSSLE TOMORROW BETWEEN BULLS AND BEARS .WE ADVICE TO CASH ON THIS TUSSLE BY BUYING A 3700CE OF NIFTY AND A 3800 PE OF NIFTY ANY BREAKUP OR A BREAKDOWN WILL BE HIGHLY REWARDING AND THE MAXIMUM PREMIUM BLOCKED WILL BE 20 RS OR SO.
intraday stock for 29.03.07
BUY india bulls real estate around 280 strict stop of 278 in a rising trend not in the down trend.......plz be strict with the trend we are expecting a recovery after mornings fall in it.......
stocks for short term as well as intraday
STRONG BUY'S - INDIABULLS,RCOM, VSNL, BHARTI,SBI, YES BANK,.
as these stocks are for short term also but if u are geting in intraday then try to exit as u ll get other day chance again to buy and if u are a regular trader always try to b on liquid.
buy in small quantities and dont buy aggreseviely at opening bell.
investment a/c for trading for 10 lacs rs
buy 1 script of 1lacs value,as same buy atleast 4 scrpits .and on down side again buy with same quantity and after this it falls then buy half quantity ..but always try to arrange your price in such a way that it never trigger your sl
as these stocks are for short term also but if u are geting in intraday then try to exit as u ll get other day chance again to buy and if u are a regular trader always try to b on liquid.
buy in small quantities and dont buy aggreseviely at opening bell.
investment a/c for trading for 10 lacs rs
buy 1 script of 1lacs value,as same buy atleast 4 scrpits .and on down side again buy with same quantity and after this it falls then buy half quantity ..but always try to arrange your price in such a way that it never trigger your sl
closing review.28.03.07
Sensex sheds 240 points to close at 12,884
The Sensex opened with a negative gap of 90 points at 13,034, and unabated selling, mainly in technology stocks, saw the index languish in negative zone for most part of the trading session today.
The Sensex dropped to a low of 12,861 before closing with a loss of 240 points at 12,884.
The Sensex opened with a negative gap of 90 points at 13,034, and unabated selling, mainly in technology stocks, saw the index languish in negative zone for most part of the trading session today.
The Sensex dropped to a low of 12,861 before closing with a loss of 240 points at 12,884.
closing review.28.03.07
Sensex sheds 240 points to close at 12,884
The Sensex opened with a negative gap of 90 points at 13,034, and unabated selling, mainly in technology stocks, saw the index languish in negative zone for most part of the trading session today.
The Sensex dropped to a low of 12,861 before closing with a loss of 240 points at 12,884.
The Sensex opened with a negative gap of 90 points at 13,034, and unabated selling, mainly in technology stocks, saw the index languish in negative zone for most part of the trading session today.
The Sensex dropped to a low of 12,861 before closing with a loss of 240 points at 12,884.
10 most popular stocks in last 24 hrs.
10 Most Popular Stocks in Last 24 Hrs
Symbol Close Prv Close Chg(%) High Low Volume
BIOCON 466.95 480.15 -2.75 480.00 465.50 57016
NIFTY 3761.10 3819.95 -1.54 3830.30 3752.95 0
IFCI 32.30 32.45 -0.46 33.75 31.85 99493278
RCOM 419.65 426.00 -1.49 426.45 414.60 5839716
RELIANCE 1350.00 1364.55 -1.07 1374.00 1342.55 2133169
RENUKA 455.70 429.05 6.21 459.95 433.00 779020
INFOSYSTCH 1992.05 2058.15 -3.21 2030.00 1988.00 2684238
ITC 143.35 142.25 0.77 144.00 140.50 6740079
GLENMARK 593.90 619.50 -4.13 619.00 590.00 439388
ONGC 864.55 850.25 1.68 872.10 825.30 1946821
Symbol Close Prv Close Chg(%) High Low Volume
BIOCON 466.95 480.15 -2.75 480.00 465.50 57016
NIFTY 3761.10 3819.95 -1.54 3830.30 3752.95 0
IFCI 32.30 32.45 -0.46 33.75 31.85 99493278
RCOM 419.65 426.00 -1.49 426.45 414.60 5839716
RELIANCE 1350.00 1364.55 -1.07 1374.00 1342.55 2133169
RENUKA 455.70 429.05 6.21 459.95 433.00 779020
INFOSYSTCH 1992.05 2058.15 -3.21 2030.00 1988.00 2684238
ITC 143.35 142.25 0.77 144.00 140.50 6740079
GLENMARK 593.90 619.50 -4.13 619.00 590.00 439388
ONGC 864.55 850.25 1.68 872.10 825.30 1946821
Wednesday, March 28, 2007
swing call for 2-15 days
buy aarti industries@22.95 sl22.38 target 23.9 and 25.55
buy alps industries @54.55 sl 53.19 target 57.4and 60.13
buy alps industries @54.55 sl 53.19 target 57.4and 60.13
delvery calls for short term
MTNL clove above 153 should see a tgt of 160-165
Maharastra Seam above 510 only looks good for tgt of 528. SL 501
3i Infotech buy if it closes above 250 for tgt of 264 SL 244
Glenmark Pharma Buy on declines, short term tgt of 640 SL 605
Still Bullish on REL CAPITAL
Maharastra Seam above 510 only looks good for tgt of 528. SL 501
3i Infotech buy if it closes above 250 for tgt of 264 SL 244
Glenmark Pharma Buy on declines, short term tgt of 640 SL 605
Still Bullish on REL CAPITAL
reverse ....trading for 28.03.07
NIFTY (3819) : Sup @ 3780 - 3765 < 3750 - 3725 Resi above 3826 @ 3840 - 3865
[b]Mphasis (280) : Sell considering 283 is nearest resistance keeping sl of 287 down ward side break below 278 keep your sl @ 283 tg 272 - 267
Ivrcl (297) : Sell keeping sl of 302
Ster (484) : Sell considering 487 is nearest and 495 is strong resistance keeping sl of 495 , down ward side break below 479 keep sl @ 485
Sobha (762) : Sell below 756 keeping sl of 767
Parsvnath (265) : Sell below 263 keeping sl of 268
[b]Mphasis (280) : Sell considering 283 is nearest resistance keeping sl of 287 down ward side break below 278 keep your sl @ 283 tg 272 - 267
Ivrcl (297) : Sell keeping sl of 302
Ster (484) : Sell considering 487 is nearest and 495 is strong resistance keeping sl of 495 , down ward side break below 479 keep sl @ 485
Sobha (762) : Sell below 756 keeping sl of 767
Parsvnath (265) : Sell below 263 keeping sl of 268
market outlook ....28.03.07
STOP PRESS: What happened in U.S. on MON 26-Mar...
What happened on MON 26-Mar...
Shrugging cues from the mixed US markets o'er the weekend, the Indian markets opened on a positive note today (MON), what with the Sensex gapping-up 0.45% at open (Nifty was nearly flat), before notching up quick overnight gains of 0.45%-0.62% (Sensex/ Nifty) in early-morning trades. However, selling pressure kicked-in within minutes of opening and the indices slipped steadily throughout the day, hitting day lows (o/n losses of 1.47%-2.41%) in late-afternoon trades, before finally closing the day (in the red) with 44%-83% of the day's losses intact! At E-o-D, the Sensex and Nifty were seen at 13124 and 3820, losing 161 points (-1.22%) and 41 points (-1.06%), respectively.
NSE cash volumes on MON (a big down-day) dropped nearly 29% to 333mn shares (FRI: 466mn), while the NSE cash traded value dropped nearly 18% to Rs.6753Cr (FRI: Rs.8204Cr), suggesting that where the overall volumes dropped nearly 29% on this big down-day, the underlying trading interest (to the extent of over 15%) may have swung in favour of frontline large-cap stocks! This seems to suggest that today's market action (downswing) may have been focussed in non-Index (& Index) large-caps and mid-caps -- in that order? The collective volumes of Sensex-component and Nifty-component stocks are BELOW their 10-day moving averages, registering overnight losses of 26% and 22% (respectively) on this big down-day.
Of the total NSE cash volumes of 333mn shares, the up-volumes were approx. 174mn shares, while the down-volumes were approx. 151mn shares (8mn shares were unchanged), giving a barely POSITIVE advance-decline ratio (volume-basis) of 1.15:1. The March NSE cash volume average for 18 trading days at 393mn shares is nearly 16% below the January average of 467mn shares for the same period (18 days), and nearly 17% below the overall January monthly average of 473mn shares.
On FRI 23-Mar (a small down-day), in the CASH market, MFs made net sales of Rs.168Cr, while FIIs made net purchases of Rs.678Cr. In the DERIVATIVES market, FIIs made net sales of Rs.155Cr in the Futures segment (incl. purchases of Rs.9Cr in index futures), and net sales of Rs.13Cr in the Options segment. FIIs have single handedly pumped US$11.04bn in CY2005, US$8.22bn in CY2006 and US$1.98bn to date in CY2007 in the Indian equity markets, with (+)US$636mn, (-)US$817mn and (+)US$2.11bn flowing in Jan-07, Dec-06 and Nov-06 respectively. For 23 calendar days in Mar-07, the FII net investment figure stands at a negative US$73mn (cash outflow of Rs.321Cr).
What happened on MON 26-Mar...
Shrugging cues from the mixed US markets o'er the weekend, the Indian markets opened on a positive note today (MON), what with the Sensex gapping-up 0.45% at open (Nifty was nearly flat), before notching up quick overnight gains of 0.45%-0.62% (Sensex/ Nifty) in early-morning trades. However, selling pressure kicked-in within minutes of opening and the indices slipped steadily throughout the day, hitting day lows (o/n losses of 1.47%-2.41%) in late-afternoon trades, before finally closing the day (in the red) with 44%-83% of the day's losses intact! At E-o-D, the Sensex and Nifty were seen at 13124 and 3820, losing 161 points (-1.22%) and 41 points (-1.06%), respectively.
NSE cash volumes on MON (a big down-day) dropped nearly 29% to 333mn shares (FRI: 466mn), while the NSE cash traded value dropped nearly 18% to Rs.6753Cr (FRI: Rs.8204Cr), suggesting that where the overall volumes dropped nearly 29% on this big down-day, the underlying trading interest (to the extent of over 15%) may have swung in favour of frontline large-cap stocks! This seems to suggest that today's market action (downswing) may have been focussed in non-Index (& Index) large-caps and mid-caps -- in that order? The collective volumes of Sensex-component and Nifty-component stocks are BELOW their 10-day moving averages, registering overnight losses of 26% and 22% (respectively) on this big down-day.
Of the total NSE cash volumes of 333mn shares, the up-volumes were approx. 174mn shares, while the down-volumes were approx. 151mn shares (8mn shares were unchanged), giving a barely POSITIVE advance-decline ratio (volume-basis) of 1.15:1. The March NSE cash volume average for 18 trading days at 393mn shares is nearly 16% below the January average of 467mn shares for the same period (18 days), and nearly 17% below the overall January monthly average of 473mn shares.
On FRI 23-Mar (a small down-day), in the CASH market, MFs made net sales of Rs.168Cr, while FIIs made net purchases of Rs.678Cr. In the DERIVATIVES market, FIIs made net sales of Rs.155Cr in the Futures segment (incl. purchases of Rs.9Cr in index futures), and net sales of Rs.13Cr in the Options segment. FIIs have single handedly pumped US$11.04bn in CY2005, US$8.22bn in CY2006 and US$1.98bn to date in CY2007 in the Indian equity markets, with (+)US$636mn, (-)US$817mn and (+)US$2.11bn flowing in Jan-07, Dec-06 and Nov-06 respectively. For 23 calendar days in Mar-07, the FII net investment figure stands at a negative US$73mn (cash outflow of Rs.321Cr).
long term delvery call
Type: IT Media & Telecom Stocks Price: Rs 51
More InformationTarget Price: Rs75Time Outline: 12MonthsReason for
Recommendation 1: The scrip is available for a very attractive valuation it has come down considerably given its track record of rewarding its shareholders time and again this scrip is a very good buy and will bounce back. Reason for
Recommendation 2: The company has always been an investor friendly and debt free company.Reason for Recommendation
3: This scrip has a face value of Rs 5 and for FY07 they are likely to reported an EPS of Rs 6 and for FY08 it could be anywhere above Rs 8 .Reason for Recommendation
4: The company has shown consistent growth in top line since its inception.Reason for Recommendation
5: They are providing the networking equipment, Internet access all these are ever growing consumer base one keeps on requiring these equipments in fact the growth in their establishment will always flow-in.Sector Notes/Buoyancy: The sector is expected to boom with demand for internet usage growth.Investment Risk Notes: Concerns as such is that -first, it’s a midcap computer hardware company. Second, if they are not able to exploit their products, which they are due for o launch in FY08, if there is a delay in the launch
.Conclusion: Buy
Company Website: http://www.mro-tek.com/
More InformationTarget Price: Rs75Time Outline: 12MonthsReason for
Recommendation 1: The scrip is available for a very attractive valuation it has come down considerably given its track record of rewarding its shareholders time and again this scrip is a very good buy and will bounce back. Reason for
Recommendation 2: The company has always been an investor friendly and debt free company.Reason for Recommendation
3: This scrip has a face value of Rs 5 and for FY07 they are likely to reported an EPS of Rs 6 and for FY08 it could be anywhere above Rs 8 .Reason for Recommendation
4: The company has shown consistent growth in top line since its inception.Reason for Recommendation
5: They are providing the networking equipment, Internet access all these are ever growing consumer base one keeps on requiring these equipments in fact the growth in their establishment will always flow-in.Sector Notes/Buoyancy: The sector is expected to boom with demand for internet usage growth.Investment Risk Notes: Concerns as such is that -first, it’s a midcap computer hardware company. Second, if they are not able to exploit their products, which they are due for o launch in FY08, if there is a delay in the launch
.Conclusion: Buy
Company Website: http://www.mro-tek.com/
strong buy calls for short term.....as well as intraday .
SBI,VOLTMAP,JINDALSTEEL,BATLIBOY,RIL,GVKPIL.....
NOTE- these are short term calls so plz try to exit asap u get profit .
NOTE- these are short term calls so plz try to exit asap u get profit .
intraday trades for 28.03.07
yes bank-@148 SL 145 TGT-152,155
CENTURY TEXTILE@551 SL 542 TGT-560-65-70
BANK INDIA @171.5 SL 168 TGT -175-77.......
PLZ FOLLOW STRICT SL .
CENTURY TEXTILE@551 SL 542 TGT-560-65-70
BANK INDIA @171.5 SL 168 TGT -175-77.......
PLZ FOLLOW STRICT SL .
closing preview of 26 march
Closing Review - Mar/26
After 1000 points rally in the sensex, bulls could not run further. As Tuesday would be off, people didn't want to carry their positions. And it seems we have successfully tested the 13100 levels today. This is inline with the expectations and there is absolutely nothing to be worried as of now. This has given a nice opportunity to enter at lower levels and good platform for further rises. What is in store for markets when they open on Wednesday? Well, we will see that on pre-open.
And after the Tea and Banks, it is the turn of Sugar stocks to come into the forefront in the rotation game. With always, "news follows market", sugar is having its day out there. It is likely to be continued for 1 or 2 more days.
After 1000 points rally in the sensex, bulls could not run further. As Tuesday would be off, people didn't want to carry their positions. And it seems we have successfully tested the 13100 levels today. This is inline with the expectations and there is absolutely nothing to be worried as of now. This has given a nice opportunity to enter at lower levels and good platform for further rises. What is in store for markets when they open on Wednesday? Well, we will see that on pre-open.
And after the Tea and Banks, it is the turn of Sugar stocks to come into the forefront in the rotation game. With always, "news follows market", sugar is having its day out there. It is likely to be continued for 1 or 2 more days.
delvery call............
ANIL SPECIAL STEEL LTD Target Rs 140 A pioneer with over 32 years of experience and expertise Anil Special Steel Industries Limited (ASIL) is extensively engaged in manufacturing and marketing of C R and Auto ancillaries components, offering a vast range of products backed up by prompt and efficient services. Anil Special Steel Industries Limited was incorporated as a public limited company in 1968 to manufacture Hardened and Tempered Steel Strips. The success story of Anil Special Steel Industries Limited is imprinted with pioneering spirit, creative drive and commercial acumen of highly qualified technical team and experienced businessmen. It has technical expertise that is provided by Hoesch Werke Hohenlimburg Schwerle A.G, Germany. ASIL is professionally managed to create and capitalize growth opportunities. It has over the years pursued its objectives through a sharply focused growth strategy. It recognizes total customer satisfaction as its main objective, thus focusing on technologies to maximize customer's convenience Investment Rationale:- There are 498 organised players in Indian auto component industry in FY 06. The industry has grown at a CAGR of 20% between 2000 and 2005 with total output in value terms touching US$ 10 bn in 2005. Exports have grown at a much higher rate of 34% CAGR during the same period with output touching US$ 1.8 bn. The performance of the auto ancillaries components solely depend upon prices of steel products being the largest raw material. ASIL is a component co where CR is the raw material. It is really unaffected by CR or HR prices going forward as the pricing gets adjusted. ASIL's growth has direct nexus with the growth of auto sector especially 2/3 wheelers as 60% of its top line comes from auto industry. 40% of the top line is from exports and Bajaj Auto ranks in one of its top customer.
Tuesday, March 27, 2007
hi .....
hi to you all,
this is a new blog of our old group indiainfosharebazar .this group i mainly formed for option trading ,swing,delvery only .so keep visiting and suggestions are always welcomed @vishwa_deepak1@yahoo.com you all can add this id for online calls also .
regards.
this is a new blog of our old group indiainfosharebazar .this group i mainly formed for option trading ,swing,delvery only .so keep visiting and suggestions are always welcomed @vishwa_deepak1@yahoo.com you all can add this id for online calls also .
regards.
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