market outlook ....28.03.07

STOP PRESS: What happened in U.S. on MON 26-Mar...

What happened on MON 26-Mar...
Shrugging cues from the mixed US markets o'er the weekend, the Indian markets opened on a positive note today (MON), what with the Sensex gapping-up 0.45% at open (Nifty was nearly flat), before notching up quick overnight gains of 0.45%-0.62% (Sensex/ Nifty) in early-morning trades. However, selling pressure kicked-in within minutes of opening and the indices slipped steadily throughout the day, hitting day lows (o/n losses of 1.47%-2.41%) in late-afternoon trades, before finally closing the day (in the red) with 44%-83% of the day's losses intact! At E-o-D, the Sensex and Nifty were seen at 13124 and 3820, losing 161 points (-1.22%) and 41 points (-1.06%), respectively.
NSE cash volumes on MON (a big down-day) dropped nearly 29% to 333mn shares (FRI: 466mn), while the NSE cash traded value dropped nearly 18% to Rs.6753Cr (FRI: Rs.8204Cr), suggesting that where the overall volumes dropped nearly 29% on this big down-day, the underlying trading interest (to the extent of over 15%) may have swung in favour of frontline large-cap stocks! This seems to suggest that today's market action (downswing) may have been focussed in non-Index (& Index) large-caps and mid-caps -- in that order? The collective volumes of Sensex-component and Nifty-component stocks are BELOW their 10-day moving averages, registering overnight losses of 26% and 22% (respectively) on this big down-day.
Of the total NSE cash volumes of 333mn shares, the up-volumes were approx. 174mn shares, while the down-volumes were approx. 151mn shares (8mn shares were unchanged), giving a barely POSITIVE advance-decline ratio (volume-basis) of 1.15:1. The March NSE cash volume average for 18 trading days at 393mn shares is nearly 16% below the January average of 467mn shares for the same period (18 days), and nearly 17% below the overall January monthly average of 473mn shares.
On FRI 23-Mar (a small down-day), in the CASH market, MFs made net sales of Rs.168Cr, while FIIs made net purchases of Rs.678Cr. In the DERIVATIVES market, FIIs made net sales of Rs.155Cr in the Futures segment (incl. purchases of Rs.9Cr in index futures), and net sales of Rs.13Cr in the Options segment. FIIs have single handedly pumped US$11.04bn in CY2005, US$8.22bn in CY2006 and US$1.98bn to date in CY2007 in the Indian equity markets, with (+)US$636mn, (-)US$817mn and (+)US$2.11bn flowing in Jan-07, Dec-06 and Nov-06 respectively. For 23 calendar days in Mar-07, the FII net investment figure stands at a negative US$73mn (cash outflow of Rs.321Cr).